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SUMMARY
For a well-priced property in an established Moroccan market, we would buy now rather than wait for a broad correction.
The recovery is showing up first in transactions, not in runaway prices. In Q2 2026, total property transactions rose 11% quarter on quarter while the national price index increased only 0.7%, which is a much healthier setup for buyers than a market where both are already surging.
The early-2026 slump also showed how Moroccan property behaves under stress: liquidity can disappear much faster than prices fall. Major-city transaction volumes dropped by roughly one-third to one-half in Q1, but sellers generally cut prices by only a few percentage points.
That makes seller motivation more important than trying to time the national index. A property that has sat through the weak first quarter can still offer a real negotiation opportunity even though the overall market is now recovering.
Morocco does not look broadly overpriced on official completed-sale data. The bigger risk is much more local: paying a fashionable-neighborhood or off-plan premium that already assumes years of tourism, infrastructure and World Cup upside.
The 2030 investment programme is real enough to matter, especially rail, airport and urban-access projects, but the value comes from permanent improvements to connectivity rather than from the tournament label itself.
Financing has eased only slightly. With new real-estate lending rates around 5%, negotiating 5% off the purchase price can be more valuable than waiting for a modest mortgage-rate decline that may or may not arrive.
Rental economics are strong enough in several cities to support buying without heroic appreciation assumptions. Indicative gross yields around 6% to 8% are far easier to defend than a low-yield purchase whose entire case rests on 2030.
Casablanca, Marrakech, Tangier and Rabat all have credible demand, but for different reasons: employment and scale in Casablanca, tourism in Marrakech, industry and logistics in Tangier, and defensive professional demand in Rabat.
The practical answer is therefore uneven. Buy when the building, street, rent and price already work today; wait when the seller is charging for a future that has not arrived, the financing is stretched, or the investment only works with aggressive Airbnb occupancy or rapid resale gains.
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Is Morocco’s property market getting stronger right now?
Morocco’s property market is clearly stronger today than it was at the start of 2026, although buyers are returning much faster than prices are rising.
The latest Bank Al-Maghrib and ANCFCC data give us the clearest picture. In Q2 2026, property transactions jumped 11% from the previous quarter while prices increased just 0.7%. Compared with a year earlier, transactions were up 6.3%, against a 0.7% rise in prices.
Residential property followed the same pattern. Home prices increased 1% quarter on quarter and 1% year on year, while residential transactions rose 6.3% from the previous quarter and 3.9% from a year earlier.
That is a fairly good environment for buyers. Demand has recovered enough to weaken the case for waiting for a nationwide crash, but prices are still moving slowly enough that buyers are not chasing a broad boom.
The speed of the rebound also matters. Q1 2026 had been extremely weak, with transactions collapsing in several major cities. Activity then came back quickly in Q2 without a major price surge.
For now, Morocco looks like a recovering property market where buyers still have time to be selective.
| Morocco property market | Annual change | Quarterly change | What we see |
|---|---|---|---|
| All property prices | +0.7% | +0.7% | Slow appreciation |
| All transactions | +6.3% | +11.0% | Strong activity rebound |
| Residential prices | +1.0% | +1.0% | Moderate growth |
| Residential transactions | +3.9% | +6.3% | Buyers returning |
| Apartment prices | +1.1% | +1.0% | Slightly stronger than overall housing |
Are property prices in Morocco already too high?
Moroccan property prices have become expensive in some neighborhoods, but the national market still shows very little evidence of a broad housing bubble.
Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC measured only a 0.6% increase in Morocco’s overall property-price index during 2025. Residential prices rose 0.8%. With consumer inflation also averaging around 0.8%, national home prices were basically flat in real terms.
The city numbers were more uneven. Rabat prices rose 3.5% during 2025, while Marrakech gained 1%, Casablanca 0.9% and Tangier 0.6%.
Those figures are surprisingly modest considering how much attention Morocco currently receives from tourists, foreign buyers, developers and investors positioning around 2030.
Asking prices can tell a very different story. Local market surveys regularly show prime apartments above MAD 20,000 per square metre in places such as Ain Diab, Anfa, Casablanca Finance City and parts of Marrakech. Hivernage and Guéliz can also command large premiums over ordinary residential districts.
This is where buyers can get into trouble. The national market itself does not look wildly overpriced; individual sellers and developers sometimes do.
We would worry far more about paying an inflated price in the fashionable part of Marrakech or Casablanca than about buying Morocco at the top of a nationwide bubble.
| City | 2025 price change | 2025 transaction change | What stands out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabat | +3.5% | +15.0% | Strongest price growth |
| Marrakech | +1.0% | +24.1% | Sales surged without equivalent price growth |
| Casablanca | +0.9% | +7.8% | Broad but moderate recovery |
| Tangier | +0.6% | +3.3% | More restrained |
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Did the early-2026 property slump create a buying opportunity in Morocco?
Yes, the early-2026 slowdown created opportunities for buyers, especially with sellers who had expected a much easier market.
The scale of the Q1 drop was striking. Compared with the previous quarter, transactions fell 55.4% in Rabat, 53.3% in Marrakech, 37.8% in Casablanca and 36.4% in Tangier.
Prices also fell, but much less. Rabat dropped 4.7%, Tangier 3.9%, Casablanca 2.7% and Marrakech 1.5%.
The gap is revealing. Even when buying activity disappeared, prices did not fall anything close to 40% or 50%. Many owners appear able to hold their property, withdraw it or simply wait instead of accepting whatever offer is available.
Then activity bounced back in Q2. National transactions rose 11% from the previous quarter and prices recovered 0.7%.
So the best buying opportunity created by the slump is probably found property by property. An owner who has been trying to sell since the weak first quarter may now be much more flexible than someone who listed recently.
A nationwide fire sale never really happened, and the latest numbers make one less likely in the immediate future.
Will Moroccan property sellers cut prices if I wait?
Waiting for Moroccan sellers to make large across-the-board price cuts looks like a weak strategy right now.
The first half of 2026 gave us a useful stress test. Transaction activity collapsed in Q1, yet sellers generally gave up only a fraction of the price required to clear the market immediately.
Marrakech is a good example. Transactions fell 53.3% from the previous quarter while prices declined only 1.5%. Casablanca sales dropped 37.8%, against a 2.7% decline in prices.
Rabat was more responsive, with prices falling 4.7%, but even that remained far smaller than the 55.4% contraction in transactions.
Moroccan real estate can therefore freeze before it becomes dramatically cheaper. We saw that very clearly in Q1.
We would pay close attention to how long a property has been listed, whether it is vacant, whether the owner has already purchased elsewhere, whether an overseas owner wants liquidity and whether a developer is trying to close out the final units of a project.
Those situations can produce real discounts today. Simply waiting for every seller in Morocco to become cheaper probably will not.
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Will the 2030 World Cup push Morocco property prices higher?
The 2030 World Cup should help property values in selected parts of Morocco, mainly because the country is spending heavily on infrastructure that will still be useful after the tournament.
The IMF estimates that accelerated investment in Moroccan connectivity and tourism infrastructure between 2024 and 2030 will total about MAD 190 billion. That is equivalent to 11.9% of Morocco’s 2024 GDP.
About half of the programme is tied to rail investment. Airports account for roughly 20%, stadiums 19%, highways 7% and urban improvements around 4%.
The rail component includes high-speed and regional networks. Airports are being expanded, including Casablanca’s main hub and facilities in other major cities. Roads and urban infrastructure are also being upgraded across areas expected to handle more residents, tourists and business activity.
These projects can genuinely change where people want to live. A shorter commute, a better railway connection or a larger airport can improve a location for decades.
The danger is paying for that future twice. Developers around expected transport improvements can raise launch prices well before the infrastructure opens. New construction can also add thousands of competing homes around the same corridor.
We would therefore pay for a location where infrastructure makes daily life measurably better. A project whose main selling point is simply “World Cup 2030” deserves much more skepticism.
| 2030 investment area | Approximate share | Possible property effect | How useful is it? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 50% | Better commuting and intercity access | High in the right locations |
| Airports | 20% | More tourism and business connectivity | High in tourism/business cities |
| Stadiums | 19% | Local redevelopment | Much more uncertain |
| Highways | 7% | Better regional access | Location-dependent |
| Urban improvements | 4% | Better public realm and services | Potentially valuable locally |
Has Morocco’s 2030 property boom already been priced in?
Some prime Moroccan properties already carry a large 2030 premium, but official market data suggest that the national upside has definitely not been fully priced in.
The easiest way to see this is through actual transaction prices. Residential prices rose just 0.8% across 2025 and are currently only around 1% higher than a year ago in the latest official data.
That is nowhere close to what we would expect if the whole country had already gone through a speculative World Cup repricing.
Prime asking prices are much more aggressive. A 2025-2026 ReaConsult market survey put apartments in Anfa Supérieur and Ain Diab at roughly MAD 22,000-28,000 per square metre, Casablanca Finance City at MAD 19,000-26,000, Marrakech Hivernage at MAD 16,000-24,000 and Guéliz at around MAD 13,000-20,000.
Other property portals currently produce citywide advertised averages well above what ordinary Moroccan households can comfortably afford. These asking-price datasets should not be confused with completed sales, but they show where expectations have already moved ahead.
A buyer therefore has to separate two things: Morocco’s long-term improvement and the price a seller is demanding today.
The first can still be attractive while the second can be absurd.
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Should I wait for lower mortgage rates before buying property in Morocco?
Mortgage rates in Morocco could fall further, but waiting solely for cheaper financing is unlikely to transform the economics of a good property deal.
Bank Al-Maghrib’s average rate on newly issued real-estate loans was around 5.06% in Q2 2026, compared with 5.13% in the previous quarter.
The central bank’s policy rate currently stands at 2.25%, after earlier monetary easing. Inflation was exceptionally low in 2025, averaging around 0.8%, although the IMF expects some temporary upward pressure before inflation settles closer to 2% over the medium term.
We could still see mortgage offers improve at individual banks, especially for strong borrowers with large down payments. Yet a return to dramatically cheaper borrowing is far from guaranteed.
The numbers put small rate changes into perspective. On a MAD 1 million loan over 20 years, reducing the rate from 5% to 4.5% cuts the monthly payment by only a few hundred dirhams. Negotiating 5% off the property itself saves MAD 50,000 immediately on a MAD 1 million purchase.
For most buyers, the purchase price still matters more than trying to catch the exact bottom in mortgage rates.
| Financing indicator | Current picture | Recent direction | What we would do |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Al-Maghrib policy rate | 2.25% | Stable recently | Do not expect a huge rate reset |
| New real-estate loan rate | ~5.06% | Slightly lower | Financing has eased a little |
| Inflation | Low by recent standards | Some upside expected | Less pressure than during tightening |
| Mortgage timing | Uncertain | Gradual changes | Negotiate price first |
Is Morocco’s economy strong enough to keep property prices up?
Morocco’s economy is currently strong enough to support housing demand, although weak job creation still puts a ceiling on how quickly ordinary home prices can rise.
The IMF estimates that Morocco’s real GDP grew 4.9% in 2025 and expects another 4.4% expansion in 2026. Public infrastructure spending and a stronger agricultural year are important parts of that growth.
The investment programme around transport and tourism should also add to economic activity before 2030. IMF modelling estimates that the accelerated infrastructure programme could lift near-term GDP growth by around one percentage point relative to its previous baseline.
There is still a major constraint: unemployment remains high. Morocco can build railways, airports, hotels and new neighborhoods faster than household incomes rise.
That helps explain why today’s market feels stronger without producing huge nationwide home-price increases. Tourism, infrastructure, overseas buyers and economic growth support demand, while local affordability prevents prices from running completely free.
For anyone waiting for an economic recession to produce cheap Moroccan property, the current macro data offer little support. Anyone expecting national home prices to suddenly rise 15% every year should be just as cautious.
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Is Morocco’s housing aid pushing more people into the property market?
Morocco’s housing-aid programme is already adding a meaningful pool of buyers to the affordable and middle parts of the residential market.
Government figures show that more than 105,000 buyers had received direct housing assistance by the latest official update, while 218,000 applications had been registered.
The structure is substantial relative to cheaper homes. Eligible buyers can receive MAD 100,000 toward a home priced at MAD 300,000 or less, or MAD 70,000 toward a property priced between MAD 300,000 and MAD 700,000, subject to the programme rules.
Around 60% of beneficiaries bought homes below MAD 300,000. People under 40 accounted for 52% of recipients, and Moroccans living abroad represented 24%.
The 24% share for Moroccans abroad is worth watching. Overseas Moroccan demand is often associated with villas, holiday homes or apartments in major cities, yet the subsidy data show that it also reaches the mass housing market.
The programme cannot determine luxury prices in Hivernage, Ain Diab or Rabat’s premium districts. It does make a broad collapse in cheaper residential housing harder to assume when more than 100,000 subsidized purchases have already been completed.
| Housing-aid measure | Latest official figure | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiaries | 105,000+ | Large pool of completed buyers |
| Registered applications | 218,000 | More demand in the pipeline |
| Aid on homes ≤ MAD 300k | MAD 100,000 | Very large relative subsidy |
| Aid on homes MAD 300k-700k | MAD 70,000 | Supports middle segment |
| Buyers under 40 | 52% | Strong younger-buyer participation |
| Moroccans abroad | 24% | Overseas demand reaches mass housing |
Is Morocco’s tourism boom still strong enough to support property?
Morocco’s tourism boom is still very strong today, giving cities such as Marrakech and Agadir another source of housing and investment demand.
Morocco received 19.8 million tourists in 2025, according to the Ministry of Tourism, 14% more than in 2024 and far above pre-pandemic levels.
The momentum has continued into 2026. The ministry counted 7.7 million arrivals during the first five months of the year, 7% more than during the already strong comparable period in 2025. May alone brought 1.7 million visitors, up 13% year on year.
That scale feeds several parts of the property market at once. More tourists support hotels and short-term rentals. Hospitality expansion creates jobs and longer-term rental demand. Repeat visitors can become second-home buyers. Better air connections make property ownership easier for people based abroad.
Marrakech has been particularly exposed to this combination, which helps explain why transaction growth there reached 24.1% during 2025 even though official prices increased only 1%.
We would still avoid assuming that record tourist arrivals automatically create great Airbnb investments. Rental supply is expanding too, and more hotels are opening.
Tourism gives Morocco another reason why a deep national housing correction looks unlikely today. Whether a specific apartment earns a good return still depends on what buyers pay for it.
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Are rental yields in Morocco good enough to buy now?
Rental yields in several Moroccan cities are high enough today that investors do not need a huge increase in property prices for a purchase to make sense.
Global Property Guide’s 2026 dataset puts the average gross residential yield across the Moroccan markets it tracks at roughly 7.3%.
The city estimates are around 8.3% in Casablanca, 8.3% in Tangier, 8.25% in Marrakech and 6.9% in Rabat. Agadir sits much lower, at below 5%.
Local studies focused on prime districts often produce yields closer to 5%-6%. That difference makes sense. Premium buyers pay heavily for the address, architecture, tourism appeal or future resale prospects, which pushes the purchase price up faster than rent.
Net yields will also be lower once we account for vacancies, maintenance, condominium charges, management, tax and transaction costs.
Still, a property producing a credible 6%-8% gross yield today is much easier to justify than one producing 3% while the seller promises that 2030 will make up the difference.
A strong current rental return gives buyers time. Future appreciation then becomes an extra rather than something the investment desperately needs.
| City | Indicative gross yield | Main demand | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casablanca | ~8.3% | Long-term urban tenants | Strong when entry price is sensible |
| Tangier | ~8.3% | Residents, industry, tourism | Attractive structural mix |
| Marrakech | ~8.25% | Tourism and residents | Good potential, more competition |
| Rabat | ~6.9% | Professionals and public sector | More defensive |
| Agadir | <5% | Tourism and lifestyle | Needs stronger price discipline |
Where in Morocco does buying now make the most sense?
Casablanca, Marrakech and Tangier currently offer the strongest cases for buying, but each city works for a different type of buyer.
Casablanca has the deepest everyday housing demand. Morocco’s largest business center does not need tourism or the World Cup to create tenants. Employment, universities, offices and domestic migration already support a large long-term rental market.
Marrakech gives buyers much more exposure to tourism and foreign demand. Its 24.1% increase in transactions during 2025 was easily the strongest among Morocco’s four biggest property markets tracked in the official annual figures. That makes Marrakech attractive, but popular areas such as Guéliz and Hivernage require strict price discipline.
Tangier has the most interesting industrial angle. Tanger Med, manufacturing, logistics, rail connectivity and tourism give the city several demand engines rather than one. In the latest Q2 data, Tangier also recorded a 2.3% quarterly increase in property prices, the strongest of the four major markets.
Rabat appeals more to buyers who value stability. Government employment, professional households and relatively constrained prime locations create a different profile from Marrakech.
We would avoid choosing a city solely from national rankings. In Morocco, the difference between two neighborhoods inside the same city can easily matter more than the difference between Casablanca and Tangier.
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Could Moroccan property prices still fall before 2030?
Moroccan property prices could absolutely fall again before 2030, but the evidence currently points more toward local corrections and stagnant projects than a synchronized national crash.
Q1 2026 already showed how quickly liquidity can disappear. Major cities lost between roughly one-third and one-half of their quarterly transaction volume.
There are several ways another downturn could happen. Mortgage affordability remains tight for many households. Unemployment is high. Developers can oversupply fashionable districts. Tourism can slow. Some buyers are already paying large premiums for projects whose future value depends on infrastructure that is still under construction.
A buyer paying MAD 25,000 per square metre for an ordinary unit simply because a district is linked to the World Cup could easily lose money even if Moroccan property prices rise nationally.
A countrywide collapse is harder to argue for while GDP is growing above 4%, large infrastructure spending is underway, tourism continues to expand and government housing aid is pulling more households into ownership.
The early-2026 slump also failed to turn into a sustained national price spiral.
So yes, we should expect disappointing developments, weak neighborhoods and occasional city corrections before 2030. That is very different from assuming Morocco as a whole will suddenly become 20% cheaper.
Who should wait before buying property in Morocco?
Buyers should wait today when the property only looks attractive under optimistic assumptions about future prices, tourism or 2030.
A highly leveraged buyer is the clearest example. A mortgage around 5% leaves much less room for error than a cash purchase, especially once acquisition costs and ongoing expenses are included.
We would also wait on new developments where the developer is already charging the entire future neighborhood premium. If comparable completed apartments cost MAD 15,000 per square metre and an off-plan project asks MAD 22,000 because a new station will eventually open nearby, much of the upside has already gone to the developer.
Short-term buyers should be careful too. Moroccan residential transactions typically involve registration duties, land-registry charges, notarial costs, agency fees and other expenses. All-in acquisition costs can easily approach roughly 6%-8% before financing.
Someone planning to sell again in two or three years starts with a fairly large hurdle.
The same caution applies when rental projections come directly from the seller, title documents are unclear, condominium rules are uncertain or the investment requires extremely high Airbnb occupancy to work.
There is currently no shortage of property in Morocco. Buyers in those situations lose little by walking away.
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Who should buy property in Morocco now?
Long-term buyers who find a well-priced property with real demand already around it have a strong case for buying Morocco now.
The simplest case for buying is an established home in Casablanca, Marrakech, Tangier or Rabat where rents, transport, jobs and neighborhood quality already make sense before we add any 2030 assumptions.
Cash buyers are particularly well placed. The market has recently been through a severe transaction slowdown, so some owners have experienced months of weak demand even though headline market activity is now improving. That can create negotiating opportunities that disappear once confidence fully returns.
Long-term owner-occupiers also gain relatively little from trying to predict whether the national index falls 2% next year. Over a ten-year holding period, buying the right street, building and layout will usually matter far more.
Investors should set a harder test. We would want a property to produce an acceptable rental return using today’s achievable rent, without assuming heroic occupancy or rapid appreciation.
If the property passes that test and the seller accepts a sensible price, waiting becomes a bet that something materially better will appear later.
Right now, the evidence does not make that bet especially attractive.
Should I buy property in Morocco now or wait?
For a good property bought at a sensible price, we would buy in Morocco now rather than wait for a broad market correction.
The latest evidence gives us an unusually clear setup. Property transactions have just rebounded 11% quarter on quarter, yet national prices increased only 0.7%. Buyers are coming back before prices have accelerated much.
Several other forces also lean in the same direction. Morocco’s economy is growing above 4%. Tourism remains at record levels. More than 105,000 households have already used the direct housing-aid programme. The country is accelerating roughly MAD 190 billion of rail, airport, highway, stadium and urban investment ahead of 2030.
None of those figures can rescue an overpriced apartment.
The price you pay is the decision. We would happily wait when a developer wants a huge premium for an unfinished project, when the rental yield is weak, when financing stretches the household budget or when the entire investment case depends on World Cup appreciation.
A correctly priced property in an established area is different. The current market gives us improving demand, slow national price growth and enough recent weakness that motivated sellers can still be found.
Waiting for Morocco itself to become dramatically cheaper now requires a fairly specific bearish scenario. Waiting for one overpriced seller to become more reasonable can make perfect sense.
For most long-term buyers, that is the way we would approach the market today: buy the right deal when it appears, and reject the idea that simply waiting another year or two will automatically produce a better one.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
We treated “Should I buy property in Morocco now or wait?” as a decision problem rather than a prediction based on one headline number. The analysis breaks the question into the factors that can actually change the answer: transaction activity, prices, seller behaviour, financing, economic conditions, housing support, tourism, infrastructure, rental economics, geographic differences and downside risk.
For each part, we used the freshest relevant evidence available and then checked it against the broader direction of travel. Short-term data help us see what changed in early and mid-2026, while full-year 2025 figures give us a cleaner view of whether the market is genuinely strengthening or merely bouncing after one weak quarter.
We kept different datasets separate because they answer different questions. Transaction volumes show whether buyers are returning; completed-price indices show whether that demand is translating into higher prices; asking-price surveys show seller expectations rather than completed values; and rental-yield datasets are used as an investment lens rather than as a substitute for official market pricing.
Official sources received the most weight. The core property-market evidence comes from Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC real-estate price index, including the Q1 2026 slump, the Q2 2026 recovery and the 2025 city-level comparisons. Monetary-policy and real-estate lending data come from Bank Al-Maghrib.
Economic and 2030 assumptions were grounded in institutional data rather than promotional property narratives. IMF material was used for GDP growth, inflation expectations and the roughly MAD 190 billion accelerated infrastructure programme, while ONCF and ONDA material provided direct evidence on the rail and airport investment programmes.
Housing demand was checked from several angles. Government releases on the direct housing-aid programme were used for beneficiary and application figures, HCP data were used for labour-market conditions, and Ministry of Economy and Finance and government tourism releases were used for recent visitor growth.
We gave more weight to changes that are already observable than to future stories. A completed railway extension, a current mortgage rate or a measured transaction rebound counts more heavily than a developer’s promise that a property will benefit from the 2030 World Cup. Future infrastructure still matters, but only where it can plausibly improve daily connectivity, access, tourism capacity or economic activity.
We also did not score every factor mechanically. The conclusion becomes stronger when several independent indicators point in the same direction, and more conditional when the result depends heavily on a particular city, neighborhood, property type or purchase price. That is why the final answer is much sharper on a well-priced established property than on an expensive off-plan unit sold mainly on a 2030 narrative.
Key sources used for this analysis include: ANCFCC’s official Real Estate Asset Price Index hub, ANCFCC’s Q1 2026 Real Estate Asset Price Index, the ANCFCC / Bank Al-Maghrib Q4 2025 Real Estate Asset Price Index, Bank Al-Maghrib’s policy-rate release, the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Consultation with Morocco, the IMF’s full 2026 Morocco country report, HCP’s Q2 2026 labour-market update, the Moroccan government’s direct housing-aid update, the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s June 2026 economic note, ONCF’s railway investment update, and the official 2025-2030 airport investment agreement.
Buying real estate in Morocco can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
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