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SUMMARY
Yes. Morocco’s property market is genuinely recovering now, but the recovery is much more obvious in transactions than in prices.
The strongest change is liquidity. Total property transactions are up 6.3% year on year and residential transactions 3.9%, while residential prices are only around 1% higher.
That gap is important. Buyers are returning without creating a nationwide price surge, which makes the current cycle look healthier than a debt-fuelled or speculative boom.
The bad first quarter of 2026 now looks more like a violent interruption than the start of another downturn. Residential activity moved back into annual growth in Q2, and apartments did most of the work.
The recovery is still narrow in some places. Apartments are selling more often than a year ago, while houses and villas remain weaker, so not every part of the housing market has turned at the same speed.
Morocco is also recovering city by city rather than as one synchronized market. Rabat, Tangier, Casablanca, Marrakech and Fès have improved, while Meknès, Oujda and some smaller markets still look soft.
Housing aid has become a real demand engine rather than a marginal subsidy. More than 105,000 beneficiaries, heavy participation below MAD 300,000 and a large MRE share show that state support is directly feeding transaction volumes.
Credit is helping, but it is not driving the whole move. Housing loans are expanding only a few percent a year, which means cash buyers, diaspora savings, public aid and accumulated household savings are carrying a meaningful share of demand.
Developers are behaving as if the recovery has legs. Addoha and Alliances are reporting stronger presales, large secured order books and rising production instead of shrinking pipelines.
The biggest missing piece is ordinary residential construction. Infrastructure and large projects are much stronger than traditional building activity, so sales have recovered faster than the broader homebuilding cycle.
Marrakech deserves separate treatment. Tourism, foreign buyers, diaspora capital and short-term-rental economics can make parts of the city feel much hotter than Morocco’s national 1% residential price growth suggests.
The practical conclusion is fairly simple: Morocco has moved beyond stagnation, but it has not entered a broad property boom. The next test is whether positive residential transaction growth spreads across more housing types, more cities and more quarters.
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Why does Morocco’s property market suddenly look healthier?
Morocco’s property market is clearly moving again today, and the change is easiest to see in transactions rather than in property prices.
Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC recorded a 3.1% increase in total property transactions across 2025, while the national real-estate price index rose only 0.6%. Residential transactions increased 1.3% and residential prices 0.8%. Those numbers were hardly spectacular, but they ended a long stretch in which the market often looked stuck.
The latest official figures are much stronger. In the second quarter of 2026, total property transactions rose 11% from the previous quarter and 6.3% from a year earlier. Residential transactions increased 6.3% quarter on quarter and 3.9% year on year. Residential prices rose 1% on both comparisons.
Buyers are coming back faster than property prices are rising.
The geographical picture started improving earlier. Across 2025, Marrakech recorded transaction growth of roughly 24% in the annual property-market data, Rabat around 15%, Casablanca nearly 8% and Tangier around 3%. Depending on the final annual series used by Bank Al-Maghrib, Marrakech’s increase approached 30%.
Prices moved much less. Rabat gained around 3.5%, while Marrakech and Casablanca were closer to 1%.
So the early recovery was largely about properties starting to change hands again. The newest data reinforce that trend, with both sales and prices moving higher.
| Indicator | 2025 | Q2 2026 YoY | Q2 2026 QoQ | What we see now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total property prices | +0.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | Gradual increase |
| Residential prices | +0.8% | +1.0% | +1.0% | Clearly positive |
| Total transactions | +3.1% | +6.3% | +11.0% | Much busier |
| Residential transactions | +1.3% | +3.9% | +6.3% | Recovering |
| Housing credit | Positive | About +2-3% | — | Slowly expanding |
Did Morocco’s property recovery disappear at the start of 2026?
No. Morocco’s property market had a very bad first quarter, but the rebound immediately afterward makes that slump look more like a sharp interruption than a new collapse.
Residential transactions fell 10.7% year on year during the first quarter. Compared with the previous quarter, the decline reached 38.4%. Residential prices were down 0.6% year on year and roughly 3% quarter on quarter.
Houses and villas looked even worse. House transactions dropped more than 50% from the previous quarter, as did villa transactions.
Those numbers deserved attention, but quarter-on-quarter comparisons are especially volatile here because Bank Al-Maghrib’s IPAI series is not seasonally adjusted. The previous quarter had also been unusually active.
The second-quarter data changed the picture quickly. Residential transactions rose 6.3% from the first quarter and prices gained 1%. Compared with a year earlier, transactions were up 3.9%.
We would be much more worried if the annual decline had continued into the second quarter. It didn’t.
| Residential segment | Q1 2026 transactions YoY | Q1 prices YoY | Q2 2026 transactions YoY | Q2 prices YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments | -10.0% | -0.4% | +4.6% | +1.1% |
| Houses | -25.3% | -1.3% | -5.6% | -0.7% |
| Villas | -13.6% | -1.9% | -7.1% | -0.3% |
| Total residential | -10.7% | -0.6% | +3.9% | +1.0% |
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Is the latest Morocco property rebound actually convincing?
The latest rebound is convincing enough to say Morocco’s residential property market is recovering, although apartments are doing far more of the work than houses and villas.
Total property transactions increased 11% in one quarter and 6.3% from a year earlier. Both comparisons are now positive, which makes the improvement harder to dismiss as simple seasonality.
Residential activity is less spectacular than the headline number because professional property is booming. Sales of professional properties jumped 31.9% year on year, compared with 3.9% for residential real estate.
Inside residential property, apartments give us the clearest evidence of genuine improvement. Apartment transactions rose 4.6% year on year and prices 1.1%.
Houses and villas still lag. House transactions were down 5.6% from a year earlier and villa sales 7.1%. Their huge quarter-on-quarter rebounds came after both categories had just suffered unusually weak first-quarter sales.
That actually makes the recovery more believable. Apartments dominate ordinary urban housing demand in Morocco, so stronger apartment liquidity tells us more about the market than a temporary jump in villa transactions would.
For now, we have one strong quarter following a difficult one. Another few quarters of annual transaction growth would make the recovery much harder to dispute.
Are Moroccan property prices really rising now?
Yes. Moroccan residential property prices are rising again today, but the increase remains modest at around 1% year on year.
Apartment prices gained 1.1% in the latest Bank Al-Maghrib and ANCFCC release. House prices were still 0.7% lower than a year earlier and villas were down 0.3%.
So buyers waiting for evidence that Moroccan housing prices have turned positive now have it, especially for apartments. Buyers expecting the start of a nationwide price surge do not.
The longer history is useful here. Inflation-adjusted residential property data distributed by the Bank for International Settlements show Morocco’s real house-price index around the high 70s in early 2026 after sitting around 96-97 before the pandemic and close to 100 during parts of the previous decade.
In purchasing-power terms, Moroccan residential property therefore remains far below earlier peaks.
The current market looks quite different from a speculative boom. More homes are selling and nominal prices are edging higher after years of weak real performance.
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Are Casablanca, Rabat, Marrakech and Tangier all recovering now?
Most of Morocco’s biggest property markets are improving today, but they are moving at very different speeds.
The latest Bank Al-Maghrib and ANCFCC data show quarter-on-quarter property-price increases of 2.3% in Tangier, 1.9% in Rabat, 0.5% in Casablanca and 0.5% in Marrakech. Fès rose 1.7%.
That is a big reversal from the first quarter, when prices had fallen around 4.7% in Rabat, 3.9% in Tangier, 2.7% in Casablanca and 1.5% in Marrakech.
More importantly, these cities are being pulled by different buyers.
Casablanca has the deepest employment and owner-occupier base. Rabat combines relatively high incomes with limited prime supply. Tangier is benefiting from industrial investment, logistics and major infrastructure. Marrakech has a much larger tourism, second-home, diaspora and foreign-buyer component.
The recovery gets patchier outside the stronger cities. Meknès and Oujda recorded 0.9% quarterly price declines in the latest official release, while Agadir and El Jadida were almost flat.
Morocco therefore has several recovering urban markets rather than one perfectly synchronized national housing cycle.
| City | Latest quarterly price change | Main source of demand | Current picture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tangier | +2.3% | Industry, logistics, infrastructure | Strong |
| Rabat | +1.9% | High incomes, administration, constrained prime supply | Strong |
| Fès | +1.7% | Affordable housing, state support | Improving |
| Casablanca | +0.5% | Employment, owner-occupiers, investors | Gradual recovery |
| Marrakech | +0.5% | Tourism, diaspora, foreign buyers | Stronger activity than prices |
| Meknès | -0.9% | Domestic demand | Still weak |
| Oujda | -0.9% | Domestic demand | Still weak |
| Agadir | Roughly flat | Tourism, local demand | Stable |
Is Morocco’s housing aid actually helping the property market recover?
Yes. Morocco’s direct housing-aid programme has become large enough to move the affordable and middle-income property market.
The scheme pays MAD 100,000 toward eligible homes priced at or below MAD 300,000 and MAD 70,000 for homes between MAD 300,000 and MAD 700,000.
The latest government update put the number of beneficiaries above 105,000. Around a year earlier, the total was only about 55,500. That is close to a doubling.
Demand has also gone far beyond a small pilot programme. Officials have reported more than 200,000 applications, while 52% of beneficiaries are younger than 40 and roughly 24% are Moroccans living abroad.
The price distribution tells us where the programme is having the strongest effect. Around 60% of beneficiaries in the latest government breakdown bought homes worth less than MAD 300,000.
Another government update put the total value of homes acquired through the scheme above MAD 41 billion, against nearly MAD 8 billion of public assistance. Roughly speaking, every dirham of direct state support has accompanied about five dirhams of housing purchases.
That is large enough to affect sales volumes, especially in cities such as Fès, Berrechid, Meknès, Greater Casablanca, Kénitra and El Jadida, which appear prominently among the programme’s beneficiaries.
| Housing-aid indicator | Earlier reading | Latest available reading | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beneficiaries | ~55,500 | >105,000 | Nearly doubled |
| Applications | ~177,000 | >200,000 | Demand remains high |
| Beneficiaries under 40 | — | 52% | Strong younger-buyer participation |
| MRE share | ~24% | ~24% | Consistently important |
| Value of homes acquired | — | >MAD 41bn | Material market volume |
| State contribution | — | ~MAD 8bn | About one-fifth of purchase value |
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Are Moroccan mortgages getting cheap enough to revive home buying?
Mortgage conditions have improved a little, but Moroccan housing credit is still growing too slowly to explain the property recovery by itself.
Bank lending to housing has recently been increasing by roughly 2-3% year on year. Crédit du Maroc, for example, reported 2.3% growth in its housing-loan book at mid-year while its total lending grew 7.1%.
Rates have come down for some borrowers after Bank Al-Maghrib eased monetary policy, although the best advertised rates give an overly generous picture of what everyone pays.
Afdal analysed roughly 36,500 mortgage offers from ten partner banks during the first half of 2026. The best profiles could obtain rates around 4% before tax, while the average rate in its sample was 4.64%. The average had actually been 4.59% in the previous half-year, showing how much borrower profile still matters.
Bank Al-Maghrib’s broader average rate on real-estate lending has been around 5%.
Mortgages are available at reasonable rates for strong borrowers, but Morocco has not suddenly discovered cheap housing finance.
Residential transactions can rise nearly 4% year on year while housing credit grows only around 2-3%. The recovery is clearly drawing on more than bank leverage: cash buyers, housing aid, diaspora capital and accumulated household savings are all part of the story.
Are Morocco’s big property developers seeing a real recovery too?
Yes. Morocco’s large listed developers are selling more homes and carrying larger forward order books, which backs up what we see in the transaction data.
Addoha reported 5,557 presales during the first half of 2026, up 11% from the same period a year earlier. Its secured revenue backlog reached about MAD 12.1 billion, including roughly MAD 8.9 billion in Morocco.
The group had almost 23,800 units under production across its markets, representing close to MAD 20 billion of potential revenue.
Alliances is moving in the same direction. Second-quarter revenue reached roughly MAD 803 million, around 30% higher than a year earlier, while presales increased 16% to 1,639 units. Its secured order book stood near MAD 4.5 billion, with more than 6,300 units under construction.
Presales are especially useful here because they tell us whether buyers are committing before projects are completed. Rising developer revenue alone could reflect older contracts; stronger presales give us a more current reading of demand.
The two groups are also increasing production rather than clearing inventories and retreating. Their behaviour suggests they expect demand to remain reasonably healthy.
| Developer indicator | Addoha | Alliances | Current reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 revenue | ~MAD 1.41bn | ~MAD 1.42bn | Activity growing |
| Presales | 5,557 units | 1,639 units in Q2 | Buyer demand improving |
| Presale growth | +11% | +16% in Q2 | Positive |
| Secured revenue/order book | MAD 12.1bn | MAD 4.5bn | Strong forward visibility |
| Units under production | ~23,800 | >6,300 | Developers expanding supply |
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Is Moroccan home construction recovering too?
Not nearly as clearly. Morocco is selling more property now, while construction data still show a much messier picture.
Cement deliveries declined around 1% during the first half of 2026 to roughly 6.8 million tonnes. Through the first five months, the decline had exceeded 5%.
Traditional distribution, which is closely tied to smaller construction projects and self-building, remained weak. Deliveries through that channel fell by roughly 6% during the first half.
Large-scale construction looked much better. Ready-mix concrete demand increased around 8%, infrastructure-related consumption by roughly 11%, and deliveries linked directly to the building segment increased modestly.
Then June produced an unusually strong year-on-year increase in total cement deliveries of nearly 28%.
Construction is lately improving around major projects and infrastructure much faster than around small residential building.
We would want that improvement to spread into ordinary housing construction before saying the building cycle has fully recovered.
Is housing affordability still holding Morocco’s property market back?
Absolutely. Affordability is still the clearest brake on how far Morocco’s residential recovery can go.
The design of the housing-aid programme already tells us where the pressure sits. The state pays MAD 100,000 on eligible homes up to MAD 300,000 and MAD 70,000 between MAD 300,000 and MAD 700,000 because many households struggle to bridge the gap between income, savings and purchase prices.
Most aid beneficiaries are buying below MAD 700,000, and around 60% in the latest government breakdown purchased for less than MAD 300,000.
Consider a MAD 600,000 apartment. A buyer putting down 20% would still need a MAD 480,000 mortgage. Over 20 years at roughly 4.5-5%, repayments become substantial for a typical Moroccan household before insurance, taxes, condominium charges and maintenance are included.
Higher-income households in Casablanca, Rabat, Marrakech and Tangier can handle those numbers more easily. Many lower- and middle-income buyers cannot without family help, savings or state assistance.
This affordability ceiling helps explain why transaction activity is recovering faster than prices. Sellers have limited room to push ordinary housing prices aggressively higher without losing buyers.
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Are Moroccans living abroad pushing Morocco’s property recovery higher?
Yes. Moroccans living abroad are currently giving the housing market a large pool of buyers whose budgets depend less on Moroccan salaries and domestic mortgage rates.
MRE transfers reached roughly MAD 122 billion in 2025 after around MAD 119 billion the previous year. During the first half of 2026, transfers were about MAD 61.5 billion, close to 10% higher than a year earlier.
Not all of that money goes into property, of course, but real estate has long been an important destination for diaspora savings.
The housing-aid programme gives us a cleaner property-specific clue. Around 24% of its beneficiaries are Moroccans residing abroad. As seen above, that share has stayed close to the same level even while the total programme has expanded rapidly.
MRE demand also stretches across several markets. Families buy relatively affordable apartments in their home regions, future retirees buy homes for later use, and wealthier diaspora buyers compete for property in Casablanca, Rabat, Tangier, Marrakech and coastal areas.
That helps explain one of the stranger features of Moroccan real estate: local affordability can remain difficult while demand in selected neighbourhoods stays surprisingly resilient.
Is Marrakech having its own property boom because of tourism?
Marrakech is currently running much hotter than the average Moroccan residential market, especially in investment-oriented neighbourhoods.
Official data already showed an unusually large jump in Marrakech transactions across 2025, even though repeat-sale prices moved much less dramatically.
That gap makes sense. The Bank Al-Maghrib index follows properties that have traded at least twice, while the Marrakech market also contains large numbers of renovated riads, new developments and properties aimed directly at international or short-term-rental buyers. Those segments can move before they become fully visible in a repeat-sales index.
Tourism adds another buyer logic altogether. A household buying a main residence in Casablanca asks whether the monthly mortgage fits its salary. A buyer in Guéliz, Hivernage or the Medina may instead compare a purchase price with nightly rental revenue, hotel demand, euro income or the cost of a second home elsewhere.
Strong tourism volumes and expanding hospitality capacity keep feeding that market today.
Marrakech therefore deserves to be treated separately from Morocco’s national 1% residential price increase. Parts of the city can feel much more expensive and competitive even when the national market still looks fairly restrained.
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Is Morocco’s 2030 investment boom already pushing property prices higher?
Morocco’s huge infrastructure cycle is already helping property demand, but its clearest effect today is on construction and local economic activity rather than national house prices.
The construction data make that visible. Infrastructure-related cement demand rose roughly 11% during the first half of 2026 even as overall cement deliveries slipped slightly.
Investment is spreading across rail, airports, roads, stadiums, hospitality and urban upgrades. Casablanca, Rabat, Marrakech and Tangier are among the obvious beneficiaries.
Residential property feels those projects indirectly. Better transport can make previously inconvenient neighbourhoods viable. New tourism infrastructure supports rentals and second homes. Industrial projects bring workers and suppliers. Developers become more comfortable launching projects when they can see years of investment ahead.
The effect can still be very local. A new station or road can lift one corridor while opening enough additional land nearby to keep prices under control elsewhere.
So the 2030 investment cycle currently gives us a stronger reason to expect continued housing demand than to expect a nationwide surge in property prices.
Could Morocco end up building too many homes?
Yes. Oversupply could become a real problem in individual Moroccan property markets even while the national market keeps recovering.
Addoha currently has almost 24,000 units under production across its markets, while Alliances has more than 6,000. Large public and private housing programmes add many more projects to the pipeline.
Morocco can absorb substantial new housing because urban populations continue growing, households are forming, informal housing still needs replacing and demand for cheaper homes remains deep.
But those buyers are not interchangeable.
A MAD 300,000 apartment in a Casablanca commuter area serves a completely different market from a luxury apartment sold to investors in Marrakech. Housing near Tangier’s industrial employment base depends on different demand again.
The areas most exposed to oversupply will therefore be places where developers build faster than the local pool of end users, renters or international investors can absorb the units.
National transaction growth will not protect every neighbourhood from that risk.
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What would prove Morocco’s property recovery is here to stay?
Morocco’s property recovery will look much more secure if residential transactions keep growing through the next few quarters while mortgage lending, apartment sales and ordinary housing construction also improve.
The most important number to watch is residential transaction growth. The latest annual increase of 3.9% is good, especially after the first-quarter contraction. Several consecutive positive quarters would turn a rebound into a much clearer trend.
Houses and villas are another useful test. Apartment transactions have already moved 4.6% above last year, while house and villa sales remain lower. Broader participation would make the housing recovery less dependent on one category.
Construction is the other missing piece. Large infrastructure projects are currently keeping parts of the building industry busy, but traditional residential construction remains softer.
Credit does not need to explode. Housing loans growing steadily around a few percent a year would probably be healthier than a sudden debt-fuelled surge.
Geography matters too. Tangier, Rabat, Casablanca, Marrakech and Fès are giving us positive readings, while places such as Meknès and Oujda remain weaker.
| Test | Current reading | What would strengthen the recovery | What would worry us |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential transactions | +3.9% YoY | More positive quarters | Renewed annual declines |
| Residential prices | +1.0% YoY | Continued modest growth | Broad price declines |
| Apartment transactions | +4.6% YoY | Sustained growth | Another sharp reversal |
| Houses and villas | Still down YoY | Return to annual growth | Persistent weakness |
| Housing credit | Growing a few percent | Steady expansion | Credit contraction |
| Residential construction | Mixed | Broader improvement | Rising supply with weak sales |
| Major cities | Mostly improving | More cities participate | Recovery narrows again |
So, is Morocco’s property market really recovering now?
Yes. Morocco’s property market is genuinely recovering now, and the latest evidence is strong enough to move beyond simply calling it “stable.”
The clearest change is liquidity. Total property transactions are 6.3% higher than a year ago and residential transactions are up 3.9%. Compared with the previous quarter, the increases reach 11% and 6.3%. Buyers are moving again.
Prices have followed more slowly. Residential property is around 1% more expensive than a year ago, with apartments up 1.1%. That pace is mild enough that we can talk about recovery without pretending Morocco is already in another nationwide property boom.
Several independent pieces of evidence support the same direction. More than 105,000 households have now received direct housing aid. Major developers are reporting higher presales and large order books. Housing credit continues to grow. MRE transfers remain powerful. Tangier, Rabat, Casablanca, Marrakech and Fès have all recently recorded positive price movements.
The weak spots are easy to identify too. Houses and villas are still selling less frequently than a year ago. Mortgage growth remains modest. Smaller-city performance varies widely. Ordinary residential construction has yet to match the strength we see in infrastructure. Affordability remains difficult enough that public subsidies are playing a major role in the lower and middle parts of the market.
“Recovery” is the right word today. “Boom” goes too far.
Morocco has moved from years of sluggish real-estate activity into a market where transactions are rising again, apartments are leading, prices are edging higher and several major demand engines are working at the same time. The next few quarters will tell us how far that recovery can spread, but the turnaround itself is already visible.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Morocco’s property market is genuinely recovering based on several parts of the market moving together, rather than on one strong quarter or one national price index. We compare transaction activity, prices, major-city performance, housing types, credit, state-supported demand, developer activity, construction, diaspora demand, tourism and the wider investment cycle.
Official property data from Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC form the core of the analysis. Quarter-on-quarter changes are used to identify short-term acceleration or reversals, while year-on-year changes are given more weight when judging whether activity is genuinely stronger than before because the IPAI series is not seasonally adjusted.
We separate transaction recovery from price recovery. A market can become much more liquid while prices barely move, and that distinction is central here: residential transactions have returned to annual growth while national residential prices are rising only modestly.
We also split the market by housing type and city because national averages hide large differences. Apartments currently carry more of the residential recovery than houses and villas, while Rabat, Tangier, Casablanca, Marrakech and Fès are improving at different speeds and for different reasons.
Longer-run real residential property-price data from the Bank for International Settlements are used as historical context. They help distinguish today’s nominal price gains from a broader inflation-adjusted boom and show how far Morocco’s real price level remains from earlier highs.
Demand is cross-checked against Morocco’s direct housing-aid programme, Bank Al-Maghrib housing-credit data, mortgage-rate evidence, Office des Changes MRE transfer statistics and listed-developer disclosures. These sources help show whether buyers are being supported by credit, subsidies, diaspora capital and actual presale commitments rather than just by market sentiment.
Construction is treated separately from transactions. Cement-delivery data from the Association Professionnelle des Cimentiers help distinguish ordinary residential building from stronger infrastructure, ready-mix concrete and large-project activity, which matters because the homebuilding cycle has not recovered as cleanly as property sales.
Marrakech is tested against tourism data because its buyer base is unusually exposed to hospitality, second homes, short-term rentals, foreign capital and MRE demand. The wider 2030 investment case is checked against official rail and airport programmes so we can separate current property effects from projects that are still mainly affecting construction, access and expectations.
Key sources used for this analysis include: ANCFCC’s official Real Estate Asset Price Index archive, ANCFCC’s Q1 2026 IPAI release, the BIS real residential property-price series for Morocco, the Moroccan government’s latest housing-aid update, Office des Changes statistical series, Bank Al-Maghrib monetary statistics, AMMC’s Addoha disclosure, AMMC’s Alliances issuer disclosures, the APC cement-delivery series, the Observatoire du Tourisme, ONCF’s 2030 rail-development programme, and the Moroccan government and ONDA airport-investment agreement.
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