
Get all the data you need about the real estate market in Saudi Arabia
SUMMARY
Buyers can still trust some Saudi giga-project timelines, but only when the date is backed by construction that is already difficult to reverse. Treating the original completion year of an entire masterplan as a reliable investment assumption has become much harder to justify.
The Saudi project market has split into two very different groups. Red Sea Global, ROSHN, Qiddiya and parts of Diriyah are accumulating operating assets, occupied homes or major construction packages, while The Line, Trojena and the broader New Murabba vision have faced much more serious resets.
NEOM has done the most damage to confidence in distant deadlines. The Line's earlier 2030 population ambition was cut dramatically, while Trojena lost the 2029 Asian Winter Games and then saw major construction packages terminated with works only partly complete.
New Murabba sits in the middle rather than in the same category as NEOM. Huge excavation works are real, but reported delays, rising Mukaab costs and a leadership change show why early site activity should not be confused with a secure completion date.
Saudi Arabia is also spending more selectively. Annual giga-project contract awards have fallen by roughly 60% from their 2023 peak, which means buyers can no longer assume that every PIF-backed development will receive capital at the same pace.
The projects still attracting large new awards deserve more confidence. Qiddiya has opened Six Flags and continues awarding major contracts, while Diriyah is still committing billions of riyals to hotels, residences, civic buildings and public spaces.
Red Sea Global provides the strongest proof that ambitious Saudi destinations can move from renderings into an operating ecosystem. It now has an airport, multiple resorts and residential handovers, even though some openings arrived later than originally expected.
Fixed international events improve the odds that essential infrastructure will be finished, but they do not protect every surrounding residential phase. Trojena showed that even a major sporting deadline can move when the underlying project is not ready.
PIF backing remains a major advantage because it lowers the risk of a project simply running out of financing. It does much less to protect a buyer from redesigns, slower phasing, delayed amenities or a masterplan that gets stretched over another five or ten years.
The safest Saudi giga-project purchase today is therefore one that still works if the grand vision arrives late. A licensed phase with escrow protection, a mobilised contractor, rising superstructure, functioning infrastructure and completed neighbouring assets deserves far more confidence than a home whose value depends mainly on what the masterplan promises for 2030 or beyond.
Thinking of buying real estate in Saudi Arabia?
Acquiring property in a different country is a complex task. Don't fall into common traps – grab our guide and make better decisions.
Why are buyers questioning Saudi giga-project timelines now?
Buyers have good reason to question Saudi giga-project timelines today because several high-profile deadlines have moved from “ambitious but possible” to clearly outdated.
The clearest change has come from NEOM. Earlier plans envisaged roughly 1.5 million people living at The Line by 2030. That near-term ambition was subsequently cut to fewer than 300,000, and reporting in 2026 went considerably further. Semafor reported in May that additional work on The Line had been pushed beyond 2030 while Saudi Arabia redirected capital toward infrastructure with clearer near-term economic uses, including ports and data centres.
Trojena has produced an even harder piece of evidence. Saudi Arabia was preparing to host the 2029 Asian Winter Games there, and as recently as February 2025 the Kingdom formally received the Olympic Council of Asia flag. The Games were later postponed. Then, in March 2026, contractor Webuild disclosed that NEOM had terminated its contract for three dams, the planned freshwater lake and The Bow. Those works were about 30% complete, and roughly €2.8 billion of Webuild's backlog disappeared with the termination.
New Murabba has also become harder to take at face value. PIF launched the new Riyadh downtown with 2030 as the headline completion target, and management was still publicly saying in late 2024 that construction was progressing well. The Financial Times reported in August 2026 that the project had suffered delays and cost escalation around the Mukaab, while New Murabba replaced its CEO as PIF reviewed the development.
Three very different projects have therefore produced three different kinds of reset: downsizing at The Line, cancelled construction at Trojena and cost-and-schedule pressure at New Murabba.
| Project | Earlier expectation | What has changed | What buyers can reasonably conclude |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Line | Major population build-out by 2030 | Near-term scale cut sharply; further work reportedly pushed beyond 2030 | Long-range targets carry high risk |
| Trojena | Asian Winter Games in 2029 | Games postponed; major construction contracts terminated | Even prominent deadlines can move |
| New Murabba | Broad completion around 2030 | Delays, rising Mukaab costs and leadership change | Original masterplan timing looks less secure |
| Red Sea Global | Phased tourism and residential openings | Hotels, airport and homes are now operating | Delivery can still happen despite some slippage |
Has NEOM made Saudi giga-project deadlines harder to believe, and was Trojena the biggest warning?
Yes. NEOM has done more than any other Saudi project to weaken confidence in very long-range giga-project deadlines, and Trojena may be the strongest warning for buyers relying on a fixed year.
The scale of the revisions at The Line is too large to describe as ordinary construction slippage. Bloomberg reported in 2024 that an earlier expectation of around 1.5 million residents by 2030 had fallen to fewer than 300,000. That alone represented an 80%-plus reduction from the earlier near-term population ambition.
The picture became harsher in 2026. Semafor reported that additional work on The Line had been held back until after 2030 as NEOM concentrated more spending on Oxagon, its port and industrial infrastructure. The same reporting said further investment in Trojena and several tourism developments was also being deferred.
Trojena adds a different kind of evidence. The Line was so unprecedented that few serious buyers could reasonably expect all 170 kilometres to appear quickly. Trojena had an international sporting event attached to a specific year, an external governing body and a large amount of public prestige behind it.
Saudi Arabia was still publicly preparing for the 2029 Asian Winter Games in 2025. Yet the event was postponed, and the construction picture deteriorated further afterward.
Webuild's March 2026 disclosure gives us unusually concrete information. NEOM terminated a large package for the mountain destination when construction was around 30% complete. The cancelled scope included the dams needed for the freshwater lake and The Bow. NEOM also terminated other contractors' works in the area, according to Webuild.
That makes event-driven property stories much harder to treat as guaranteed. A tournament or international event can raise delivery pressure, but it cannot force a project to be ready if construction is not.
| NEOM element | Earlier story | What we know now | Schedule confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Line | Rapid development toward a very large 2030 population | Near-term scale cut heavily; further work reportedly deferred | Low |
| Trojena | Major mountain destination anchored by 2029 Asian Winter Games | Games postponed and major contracts cancelled | Low |
| Oxagon | Industrial and logistics hub | Port, utilities and productive infrastructure still receiving attention | Higher |
| Wider tourism projects | Multiple destinations developed in parallel | Some investment reportedly being pushed later | Low to medium |
Don't buy the wrong property, in the wrong area of Saudi Arabia
Buying real estate is a significant investment. Don't rely solely on your intuition. Gather the right information to make the best decision.
Is New Murabba's 2030 timeline still believable?
New Murabba may still deliver important parts of its Riyadh masterplan by 2030, but treating 2030 as a clean completion date now looks too optimistic.
The project initially had plenty of evidence behind it. PIF formally launched New Murabba in 2023. By October 2024, the developer said excavation at the Mukaab and surrounding podium sites was 86% complete, with more than 10 million cubic metres of earth removed. Its former CEO Michael Dyke was still presenting 2030 as the completion target.
Those figures made New Murabba look much more advanced than a rendering-only project.
The latest evidence has made the story less comfortable. In August 2026, the Financial Times reported that the project had suffered significant delays and that estimated costs for the Mukaab had risen sharply. Michael Dyke was replaced by Sabah Barakat, who already had senior PIF and ROSHN experience, while the fund reassessed priorities across its real-estate portfolio.
Removing 10 million cubic metres of material is real progress, but excavation is only an early part of building something as technically unusual as the Mukaab. The proposed structure is roughly 400 metres high, wide and long and is expected to contain around two million square metres of floor space.
New Murabba remains a serious construction project. Buyers just have less reason now to assume the whole surrounding vision will be finished neatly by 2030.
Does Qiddiya show that Saudi Arabia can still hit major giga-project milestones?
Yes. Qiddiya is one of the strongest current examples of a Saudi giga-project moving from huge promises into real operating assets.
Six Flags Qiddiya City is useful because we can compare an advertised opening window with something visitors can actually use. Qiddiya repeatedly said during construction that Six Flags would open in 2025. The park opened at the end of December 2025.
That counts as a major delivery win. Six Flags is a complex theme park containing dozens of rides and attractions rather than a small symbolic opening.
Construction activity has continued since then. MEED reported in July 2026 that Qiddiya awarded an estimated SAR4.3 billion, roughly $1.1 billion, contract for a 1.3-million-square-metre racecourse capable of holding about 70,000 spectators. Around the same period, Qiddiya was awarding contracts for transport infrastructure, hotels and other entertainment assets.
The continuing awards are useful because Saudi giga-project spending overall has slowed. Qiddiya is still attracting large construction commitments while weaker or less urgent components elsewhere are being delayed.
The wider city remains unfinished, so a buyer still needs to check the exact residential phase rather than extrapolating from Six Flags.
| What we can check | Qiddiya today | What it tells buyers |
|---|---|---|
| Major attraction | Six Flags is operating | Qiddiya can finish complex assets |
| New construction spending | Roughly $1.1bn racecourse contract awarded in 2026 | Capital is still flowing |
| Wider masterplan | Large parts remain under development | Future phases still carry schedule risk |
| Residential ecosystem | Still emerging | Buyers should check the exact district rather than extrapolate from Six Flags |
Get to know the market before buying a property in Saudi Arabia
Better information leads to better decisions. Get all the data you need before investing a large amount of money.
Is Red Sea Global delivering better than the other Saudi giga-projects?
Yes. Red Sea Global currently has the strongest delivery record among Saudi Arabia's most ambitious new destinations.
The difference comes from repetition. One opening could be ceremonial. Red Sea Global has now accumulated an airport, multiple operating resorts and residential handovers.
The Red Sea destination welcomed its first hotel guests in 2023. Red Sea International Airport began domestic flights and later added international services. Five hotels were operating by early 2025. Shura Island then began opening its larger resort cluster, and the first SLS Red Sea homeowners moved into their residences in April 2026.
Other openings continued rather than stopping after the first launch. Four Seasons Resort and Residences Red Sea welcomed guests in 2026, while Miraval and additional properties expanded the operating destination. AMAALA also began moving from construction toward hotel operation, including Six Senses AMAALA.
The schedule has not been perfect. Red Sea Global previously indicated that the full first-phase collection of 16 hotels would be completed around 2025, while several openings eventually moved into 2026.
That is modest slippage compared with the resets at NEOM, and the surrounding ecosystem already exists.
| Red Sea Global milestone | Earlier expectation | What actually happened | Our reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Red Sea resorts | Initial destination opening | First guests arrived in 2023 | Delivered |
| Red Sea airport | Needed to support remote destination | Domestic and international flights established | Delivered |
| Shura residences | First handovers around end-2025 | First homeowners moved in during 2026 | Modest delay |
| Wider Shura hotel portfolio | Heavy opening schedule around 2025 | Some launches continued through 2026 | Slower than first plan, still delivering |
| AMAALA | Opening phase around 2025-26 | First major hospitality assets opening | Delivery underway |
Can buyers trust Diriyah's timeline more than NEOM's?
Yes. Diriyah currently deserves considerably more schedule confidence than NEOM because construction is moving through conventional, repeatable packages and fresh contracts are still being awarded at scale.
Diriyah is huge, so a delay somewhere in its masterplan would hardly be surprising. The important difference lies in what is being built. Residential blocks, hotels, offices, parks, civic buildings and public spaces are technically demanding, but Saudi contractors have built these types of assets before.
Recent contract activity also looks strong.
MEED reported a SAR2.7 billion, roughly $727 million, contract in June 2026 for the Waldorf Astoria superblock, including a hotel, branded residences, commercial space and other residential buildings. A separate estimated SAR730 million civic-quarter contract had been awarded in May. In July, Diriyah added a SAR393 million contract for Heroes' Park.
These packages came during a period when overall Saudi giga-project awards were sharply below their 2023 peak.
Diriyah also benefits from its location inside Riyadh's existing urban economy. It does not need an entirely new city to become populated before a residential investment can work. Roads, jobs, airports, schools and demand already exist around it.
That puts Diriyah among the more credible Saudi residential giga-project bets today, especially in phases where main construction contracts are already active.
Buying real estate in Saudi Arabia can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Has Saudi Arabia slowed giga-project spending, and where is the money going now?
Yes. Saudi Arabia is currently awarding much less new giga-project work than it did at the peak, while more of the available capital is being concentrated on projects with clearer near-term priorities.
According to MEED data cited by Enterprise Saudi Edition in July 2026, the five official giga-projects had accumulated about $92 billion in contract awards by the end of the first half of 2026. Yet only around $4.5 billion had been awarded during those first six months.
The trajectory is even clearer across several years. Awards peaked at roughly $34 billion in 2023, fell about 20% in 2024 and then dropped another 48% to around $14.3 billion in 2025.
France's Directorate-General of the Treasury reached a similar conclusion using MEED data earlier in 2026. It calculated $35.1 billion of giga-project awards in 2023, $29.6 billion in 2024 and just $13 billion in 2025.
Whichever series we use, the annual flow of new giga-project construction awards has fallen by roughly 60% from its peak.
The slowdown is selective. Qiddiya continues awarding large entertainment and transport packages. Diriyah is still signing major residential, hotel and public-space contracts. Work tied to Expo 2030, King Salman International Airport and Riyadh infrastructure is also moving forward.
NEOM has moved in another direction. Semafor reported that spending was being redirected toward Oxagon's port, utilities and data infrastructure while The Line and Trojena were pushed back. Webuild's cancelled Trojena contract shows that this reprioritisation has reached actual construction packages.
New Murabba currently sits between those groups. Procurement continues, but recent cost pressure and management changes show that its original development path is being reconsidered.
For buyers, two PIF-backed projects can now have very different chances of receiving the next billion dollars.
| Period | Approximate new giga-project awards | Change in pace |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $34-35bn | Peak |
| 2024 | $27-30bn | Down roughly 15-20% |
| 2025 | $13-14bn | Roughly halved again |
| H1 2026 | About $4.5bn | Slow pace continuing |
Does PIF backing still make a Saudi giga-project safer?
Yes, PIF backing makes a Saudi giga-project financially stronger, but buyers should stop treating it as a guarantee that every original completion date will survive.
PIF remains one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, with assets approaching $1 trillion. A company backed by that balance sheet is very different from a thinly capitalised private developer depending on the next batch of off-plan sales to keep construction alive.
That substantially reduces the risk of a project simply running out of access to capital.
PIF manages a national portfolio, so capital can move toward airports, data centres, stadiums or Riyadh districts when those projects become more urgent.
Buyers gain considerable protection from sponsor strength while still carrying schedule and phasing risk.
| Buyer risk | Does PIF backing help? | How much? |
|---|---|---|
| Developer running out of financing entirely | Yes | A lot |
| Project being abandoned casually | Yes | A lot |
| Original masterplan being redesigned | Only partly | Limited |
| A phase being pushed back | Only partly | Limited |
| Nearby amenities opening late | Only partly | Limited |
| Buyer's exact unit being delivered | Helps, but contract and construction stage matter more | Moderate |
Don't lose money on your property in Saudi Arabia
100% of people who have lost money there have spent less than 1 hour researching the market. We have reviewed everything there is to know. Grab our guide now.
Are Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup making Riyadh projects safer?
Riyadh projects connected directly to Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup currently have an advantage because the Saudi government has stronger reasons to make their essential infrastructure work on time.
Expo 2030 has a fixed international opening in 2030 and requires a functioning site, transport connections, public spaces and visitor infrastructure. Work around Expo and King Salman International Airport is therefore competing for capital with very clear deadlines attached.
The 2034 World Cup adds another layer. Saudi Arabia's bid includes 15 stadiums across five host cities, alongside transport, hotels and visitor infrastructure. Several venues are tied to larger development zones, including Qiddiya and New Murabba.
Buyers still need to separate the infrastructure required for the event from everything else in the masterplan. A transport link needed for tens of thousands of visitors has a much stronger reason to be ready than a later residential phase.
Trojena also showed that international events can move. Event deadlines improve the odds for essential infrastructure, but they do not guarantee the entire surrounding district.
Is Saudi Arabia trying to build too much at the same time?
Yes. The sheer volume of Saudi construction remains one of the biggest reasons buyers should expect some future giga-project dates to move.
MEED's 2026 project database put Saudi Arabia's wider projects pipeline above $2 trillion. Around $1 trillion was still sitting at design or front-end engineering stages rather than already being built.
That scale creates competition for much more than money. Developers need contractors, engineers, concrete, steel, specialist façades, mechanical systems, cranes, logistics capacity and experienced project managers. Saudi Arabia is simultaneously building housing, airports, metro systems, stadiums, resorts, industrial zones, power infrastructure and entire new districts.
Costs become especially difficult when several extraordinary projects want the same specialist suppliers at once.
The fall in giga-project awards since 2023 suggests Saudi Arabia is already responding by prioritising selected packages rather than forcing everything into construction simultaneously.
For buyers, a phase with installed utilities, a mobilised contractor and completed neighbouring buildings is far easier to trust than one still largely at design stage.
Get the full checklist for your due diligence in Saudi Arabia
Don't repeat the same mistakes others have made before you. Make sure everything is in order before signing your sales contract.
Are Saudi off-plan buyers protected if a giga-project home arrives late?
Saudi off-plan buyers now have meaningful protection against delays, although the law cannot recreate the investment return somebody expected from an on-time district opening.
Saudi Arabia's Off-Plan Sale and Lease of Real Estate Projects Law requires licensed off-plan projects to use dedicated escrow accounts. Buyer payments go into the project's account rather than freely into the developer's general finances, and withdrawals are tied to project controls involving consultants and accounting oversight.
The regulations also spell out what happens when construction falls behind.
REGA can approve extensions, generally up to one year beyond the original completion period. A project can enter default territory when it remains unfinished beyond approved deadlines and extensions, or when construction stops for more than 180 days without an accepted reason.
Residential buyers can also be entitled to compensation for qualifying delays. The minimum is linked to the fair rental value of the property as determined through the regulatory framework. REGA has powers to intervene in troubled developments and can bring in an alternative developer where necessary.
The main gap is the wider masterplan. A buyer may be compensated because an apartment was delivered late, yet still lose part of the expected rental premium if nearby attractions or amenities open years later.
| Protection | Saudi off-plan framework | What it actually helps with |
|---|---|---|
| Project escrow account | Required for licensed off-plan projects | Keeps buyer funds tied to the project |
| Controlled withdrawals | Subject to project oversight | Limits misuse of construction money |
| Formal completion schedule | Required within regulated project framework | Gives buyers a defined delivery obligation |
| Delay compensation | Available for qualifying residential delays | Helps offset direct cost of late handover |
| REGA intervention | Regulator can act on troubled projects | Reduces risk of indefinite developer inaction |
| Wider masterplan amenities | Much harder to protect contractually | Buyer still carries significant risk |
What should buyers check before trusting a Saudi giga-project handover date?
Buyers should trust construction that is already difficult to reverse: a licensed phase, funded escrow account, signed main contractor, visible superstructure and functioning infrastructure are much stronger evidence than the year printed on a masterplan.
Land preparation tells us very little. Excavation is better because money is being spent, although New Murabba shows that even huge excavation volumes do not secure the final schedule.
A signed main construction contract tells us considerably more. Once foundations and superstructure are rising, schedule confidence improves again. Façade installation, mechanical and electrical works, testing and commissioning push the project closer to genuine delivery.
The surrounding infrastructure deserves the same inspection. Buyers should check whether roads, power, water, sewage and access are already being built rather than relying only on photographs of the residence itself.
Completed neighbouring phases are especially valuable evidence. ROSHN's SEDRA already has families living inside the community. Red Sea Global has operating hotels and an airport around its residences. Qiddiya now has visitors physically entering Six Flags.
Buyers should also check the exact REGA status of the unit, its escrow arrangements and contractual handover provisions.
Don't sign a document you don't understand in Saudi Arabia
Buying a property over there? We have reviewed all the documents you need to know. Stay out of trouble - grab our comprehensive guide.
Which Saudi giga-project timelines look most trustworthy today?
Red Sea Global, ROSHN, Qiddiya and Diriyah currently give buyers much stronger delivery evidence than The Line, Trojena or the full New Murabba vision.
Red Sea Global ranks highly because the evidence has accumulated across several years: airport operations, hotel openings and now residential handovers.
ROSHN's SEDRA is even easier to judge at the community level because people already live there. For someone buying into a later phase, the question is mostly about finishing another part of an existing neighbourhood rather than waiting for a city to appear from zero.
Qiddiya has become considerably more credible after delivering Six Flags and continuing to award very large construction packages. The residential ecosystem remains younger, so we would still be more cautious with a home whose value assumes that every future attraction opens quickly.
Diriyah also looks relatively strong. Large fresh contracts continue to be awarded despite the wider giga-project slowdown, and the development is plugged directly into Riyadh's existing economy.
New Murabba has moved down the list. Recent procurement shows that work has not stopped, but cost pressure, delays and the latest leadership change make the full 2030 vision harder to underwrite.
NEOM carries the greatest uncertainty for date-sensitive residential investment. Both The Line and Trojena have undergone changes large enough that another long-range deadline needs much stronger evidence behind it.
| Development | What exists today | Near-term timeline confidence |
|---|---|---|
| ROSHN SEDRA | Occupied homes and functioning community infrastructure | High |
| Red Sea Global | Airport, operating resorts and residential handovers | Relatively high |
| Diriyah | Major construction packages, existing heritage destination, active residential work | Medium-high |
| Qiddiya | Six Flags operating and large new contracts underway | Medium-high |
| New Murabba | Major excavation and continuing procurement, but recent reassessment | Medium-low |
| Trojena | Significant earlier works, followed by event postponement and contract cancellations | Low |
| The Line | Major early works but drastic phasing changes | Low |
Is buying early in a Saudi giga-project still worth the delay risk?
Buying early in a Saudi giga-project can still work very well, but the price needs to compensate the buyer for several years of construction and a real chance that the surrounding masterplan changes.
Early buyers get access before the finished destination premium fully exists. If the project succeeds, that can be valuable.
The same mechanism can work against them. A residence may be sold at a premium because a ski resort, entertainment district, luxury hotel cluster or futuristic downtown is coming nearby. If those attractions arrive five years later than expected, the buyer has effectively paid today's price for a neighbourhood that takes much longer to mature.
A completed Red Sea residence surrounded by operating resorts should command a much smaller uncertainty discount than a home whose investment case depends heavily on a future phase of NEOM. A later SEDRA phase can be judged against existing homes and actual residents. An early New Murabba purchase still requires far more assumptions.
When an off-plan unit is already priced as though every promised amenity were operating, there is very little reward left for accepting the uncertainty.
Get fresh and reliable information about the market in Saudi Arabia
Don't base significant investment decisions on outdated data. Get updated and accurate information.
Can buyers still trust Saudi giga-project timelines?
Partly. Buyers can trust some near-term Saudi giga-project handovers, but trusting a whole masterplan's original completion year without checking what is physically happening now has become a bad bet.
The evidence has become much clearer recently.
The Line has been radically rephased. Trojena lost its 2029 Asian Winter Games and then saw major construction contracts terminated while works were only partly complete. New Murabba has run into delays and cost pressure severe enough to coincide with a leadership change.
At the portfolio level, annual giga-project contract awards have fallen by roughly 60% from their 2023 peak. Saudi Arabia is no longer trying to accelerate every flagship project equally.
At the same time, Red Sea Global has an operating airport, resorts and homeowners. Qiddiya has opened Six Flags. Diriyah continues awarding major construction packages. ROSHN has thousands of homes in communities that already function.
The useful dividing line today is how much of the buyer's investment case already exists.
An advanced residential phase with escrow protection, a mobilised contractor, completed infrastructure and neighbouring residents can have a credible handover date. Future amenities deserve more caution. A date attached to the final completion of an unprecedented new city deserves considerably more.
The strongest purchases today are the ones that still make sense if the grand masterplan takes longer than advertised.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether buyers can still rely on Saudi giga-project timelines based on the execution evidence available today. Rather than judging the market from one delayed project or one successful opening, we compare changes to previously announced timelines, physical construction progress, completed assets, fresh contract awards, capital-allocation trends, event deadlines, sponsor strength and the protections attached to individual off-plan purchases.
We give more weight to evidence that reveals something concrete about execution. A masterplan announcement carries less weight than a signed construction contract; early site works carry less weight than visible superstructure; and an operating airport, hotel, attraction or occupied residential community provides stronger evidence again.
We also look closely at changes in direction. Cancelled contracts, revised ambitions, slower procurement, leadership changes and shifts in capital priorities can be more revealing for future phases than the original completion year printed when a project was launched.
The projects are assessed against each other rather than treated as one Saudi construction story. That distinction is important today because delivery has become selective: Red Sea Global, ROSHN, Qiddiya and Diriyah have accumulated substantial operating or construction evidence, while The Line, Trojena and parts of New Murabba have faced much larger revisions.
Our final assessment is therefore based on structured evidence aggregation rather than a single numerical score. The more a project's near-term investment case is supported by completed infrastructure, active construction, continuing capital commitments and an existing surrounding ecosystem, the more confidence we give its timeline. Projects that depend on distant phases, unprecedented construction or assumptions that have already changed receive a larger margin of safety.
We also distinguish between the credibility of a buyer's specific handover and the credibility of the entire surrounding masterplan. A licensed residential phase can have strong delivery evidence even when later hotels, attractions, transport links or neighbourhoods remain years from completion.
Key sources include Bloomberg on the reduction of The Line's earlier 2030 population ambition, Webuild's disclosure on the terminated Trojena dams, lake and The Bow package, the Olympic Council of Asia on the postponement of the 2029 Asian Winter Games, PIF on New Murabba's launch and original 2030 framework, New Murabba Development Company on excavation progress, and the Financial Times on New Murabba's delays, cost pressure and leadership change.
For projects showing stronger delivery evidence, we used Qiddiya's construction-stage guidance for Six Flags, Qiddiya's confirmation of the attraction's opening, Red Sea Global's destination and resort updates, Red Sea Global on international airport operations, Red Sea Global on the first Shura Island residential handovers, Diriyah Company on the SAR2.73 billion Waldorf Astoria superblock contract, and Diriyah Company on additional 2026 contracts and investments.
Portfolio-level capital allocation is anchored by France's Directorate-General of the Treasury using MEED data on the fall in giga-project contract awards and PIF's annual reporting on its assets and portfolio strategy. For buyer protections, we relied on REGA's Off-Plan Sale and Lease of Real Estate Projects Law and its implementing regulations covering project extensions, construction stoppages and delay compensation. PIF's SEDRA project material was used as the main official reference for ROSHN's functioning residential community and phased development.
Get to know the market before buying a property in Saudi Arabia
Better information leads to better decisions. Get all the data you need before investing a large amount of money.
Related blog posts
- Is Saudi Arabia’s housing market actually correcting now?
- Is Saudi property now competitive with Dubai?
- Where should foreigners actually buy in Saudi Arabia?
- Will Tawazoun actually bring Riyadh land prices down?

