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Is Oman building too many foreign-buyer properties?

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SUMMARY

Oman is not building too many foreign-buyer properties across the country yet, but the pipeline is now large enough that oversupply is becoming a real risk in a few specific resort districts.

The biggest issue is concentration rather than national supply. AIDA and The Sustainable City–Yiti alone plan more than 5,000 conventional homes around Yiti, equal to more than 60% of Al Mouj’s current residential stock.

That comparison looks dramatic, but the timing is much less dramatic. Al Mouj took roughly two decades to reach its current scale, while AIDA stretches through 2034 and Telal Al Qurum has an implementation period of roughly 15 years.

The buyer pool is also broader than the phrase “foreign-buyer property” suggests. Omanis represented 55% of buyers in the sold-out first phase of The Sustainable City–Yiti, meaning new ITCs do not need to rely entirely on international demand.

Oman’s headline property numbers are stronger than its underlying transaction growth. Total real-estate trading value rose 18.4% during the first three months of 2026, yet the number of sale contracts increased only 0.5%, suggesting more money is entering property without a comparable explosion in the number of buyers.

Tourism has become the uncomfortable part of the story. Oman’s higher-end hotel market had an excellent 2025, but guests fell 13% in the first half of 2026 and occupancy dropped to 46.3%, which makes the economics of large volumes of resort-oriented investment apartments less forgiving.

Established premium communities are not showing obvious distress yet. Al Mouj and Muscat Hills rents have held up much better than rents in several ordinary Muscat neighbourhoods, so there is little evidence that Oman has already flooded its best foreign-buyable locations with supply.

Oman has, however, already demonstrated that ordinary residential segments can be built faster than demand. Around 38,400 homes were added nationally during 2024, including roughly 15,500 apartments in Muscat, and older buildings in weaker locations have had to compete hard for tenants.

The most exposed properties are likely to be interchangeable one- and two-bedroom off-plan apartments released in large phases. Scarce villas, branded residences and completed homes inside mature communities have much stronger protection because buyers have fewer close substitutes.

The decisive test will come after handover rather than at launch. If completed ITC apartments begin sitting empty, rents soften, resale inventory builds and ready units undercut later developer phases, Oman will have crossed from an ambitious construction cycle into genuine foreign-buyer oversupply.

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Is Oman suddenly building a lot more property for foreign buyers?

Yes. Oman is currently expanding its foreign-buyable housing market much faster than it did during the first generation of Integrated Tourism Complexes.

For years, foreigners looking for freehold property in Oman were mostly pushed toward a small group of established developments such as Al Mouj Muscat, Muscat Hills, Muscat Bay, Jebel Sifah and Hawana Salalah. The next generation is much bigger.

AIDA, the $1.5 billion development by Dar Global and OMRAN in Yiti, is planned to contain around 3,500 villas, townhouses and apartments. The Sustainable City–Yiti adds roughly 300 houses and more than 1,200 apartments. Telal Al Qurum, approved in 2026, will bring another large freehold project into central Muscat, while Al Bustan is adding 91 Four Seasons-branded residences.

The shift goes beyond four projects. OMRAN is using residential sales across AIDA, Yiti, Al Mouj, Muscat Bay, Jebel Sifah and other tourism developments to help finance a much broader pipeline of destinations.

So the concern behind the question has become much more credible. Oman is moving from a small foreign-ownership niche toward a proper international residential market.

Development Location Approximate residential scale Foreign ownership Development horizon
Al Mouj Muscat Muscat ~8,000 properties Freehold ITC Established, still expanding
AIDA Yiti, Muscat ~3,500 homes Freehold ITC 3 phases, through 2034
Sustainable City–Yiti Yiti, Muscat ~300 houses + 1,225 apartments Freehold ITC Phased
Al Bustan / Four Seasons Muscat 91 branded residences Freehold ITC Multi-year
Telal Al Qurum Muscat Residential units planned Freehold ITC ~15 years

How big is Oman’s new foreign-buyer pipeline compared with Al Mouj?

It is already big enough to reshape Oman’s premium housing market.

Al Mouj gives us the best benchmark because it is Oman’s most mature foreign-ownership community. The development currently reports around 8,000 residential properties and more than 19,000 residents.

AIDA alone plans roughly 3,500 homes, equal to about 44% of Al Mouj’s entire residential stock. Add approximately 1,525 houses and apartments at The Sustainable City–Yiti and the two neighbouring Yiti projects exceed 5,000 conventional homes.

That is equivalent to more than 60% of Al Mouj’s current residential scale.

The timing keeps that comparison from becoming alarming immediately. Al Mouj reached its current size over roughly two decades. Dar Global says AIDA will be developed over eight to ten years, with the full project expected by the end of 2034. Telal Al Qurum has an even longer 15-year implementation period.

Oman therefore has a very large announced pipeline, although only part of it will hit the market in any single year. The real pressure will depend on how closely the major handovers overlap.

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Are Oman’s new foreign-buyer developments actually being bought by foreigners?

No. Omanis are buying a surprisingly large share of some projects that are usually described as foreign-buyer developments.

The Sustainable City–Yiti gives us the clearest recent evidence. Phase one sold out, and the developer says Omani nationals represented 55% of buyers. Phase two is currently selling.

That single figure changes the supply calculation considerably. A 1,000-unit ITC does not need 1,000 international buyers because wealthy Omanis can buy the same villas and apartments.

Al Mouj has followed a similar model over a much longer period. Its community now contains residents from 94 nationalities, while Omani buyers have remained an important part of the ownership base.

The product itself helps explain that demand. The Sustainable City includes a school, nursery, sports facilities, shops, offices and permanent family housing. Al Mouj has schools, parks, restaurants, hotels, golf, a marina and more than 19,000 residents. These communities can work as primary homes rather than purely as holiday investments.

AIDA will probably depend more heavily on discretionary buyers because its proposition revolves around cliffside homes, golf, hospitality and resort living. Even there, affluent Omanis and GCC nationals widen the pool considerably.

Calling every ITC unit a “foreign-buyer property” therefore makes Oman’s exposure to overseas demand look larger than it really is.

Is Oman’s property market growing fast enough to absorb all this new supply?

Oman’s property market is getting more expensive and more valuable, but the number of transactions is barely growing.

The latest official NCSI figures make that difference unusually clear. During the first three months of 2026, total real-estate trading value reached OMR678.1 million, up 18.4% from the same period a year earlier.

Yet the number of sales contracts increased by just 0.5%, reaching 15,895.

We saw the same pattern during 2025. By July, the value of sale contracts was up 15.4% year over year while the number of transactions had actually fallen 1%.

So buyers are putting considerably more money into Oman property without a comparable jump in the number of properties changing hands.

That is reasonably good news for premium ITCs because they sit toward the expensive end of the market. It is weaker evidence for anyone arguing that Oman has suddenly created thousands of additional buyers.

There is another data problem here. Oman publishes good national figures on transaction values, contracts and mortgages, but there is still no clean public series showing annual ITC purchases by nationality, project, new-build versus resale and unit type.

For that reason, we can measure supply much more precisely than foreign absorption. Any confident claim that Oman already has a nationwide foreign-buyer glut goes beyond what the available data can prove.

Oman property indicator Earlier period Latest comparable period Change
Total real-estate trading value, Jan–Mar OMR572.7m OMR678.1m +18.4%
Sales contracts, Jan–Mar ~15,816 15,895 +0.5%
Sales-contract value, Jan 2025 vs Jan 2026 OMR79.9m OMR109.9m +37.5%
Sales contracts, Jan 2025 vs Jan 2026 5,688 5,725 +0.7%

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Is Oman’s expat population growing fast enough to support thousands more homes?

Oman’s expat population is still growing, but nowhere near fast enough for population growth alone to absorb the new premium pipeline.

Official NCSI data put the expatriate population at roughly 2.35 million recently, up from about 2.31 million a year earlier. Expatriates account for around 43% of Oman’s population, while Muscat Governorate has more than 1.5 million residents.

That is a huge potential rental base for a country of Oman’s size.

The increase itself is much smaller. Oman added only around 40,000 to 50,000 expatriates over roughly a year, while the national housing pipeline is measured in tens of thousands of units.

And only a small part of those 2.35 million expatriates can realistically buy an OMR100,000, OMR200,000 or OMR300,000 property. Many are lower-income workers. Others expect to remain in Oman for only a few years and prefer the flexibility of renting.

The expat population gives Oman a deep tenant pool and a meaningful source of potential homeowners. It cannot carry AIDA, Yiti and every future ITC on its own.

Is tourism still strong enough to support Oman’s resort-property boom?

Tourism supports Oman’s resort-property story, but the latest hotel data make that story less comfortable than it looked a year ago.

Oman had an excellent 2025 in higher-end hospitality. NCSI recorded about 2.38 million guests in three- to five-star hotels, up 10.8%. Hotel revenues increased 22.2%, while occupancy rose from 49.9% to 56.7%.

The first half of 2026 moved sharply the other way.

Three- to five-star hotels recorded around 992,000 guests through June, 13% fewer than during the same period of 2025. Revenues fell 12.3%, and occupancy dropped from 54.6% to 46.3%.

That does not mean Oman’s tourism strategy has suddenly failed. Visitor flows remain substantial, some individual destinations are still growing, and short periods can be distorted by seasonality and regional travel conditions. But anyone underwriting a resort apartment today using uninterrupted tourism growth is using stale assumptions.

AIDA, Jebel Sifah, Hawana Salalah and Yiti all need discretionary visitors alongside residents. A hotel market running at 46% occupancy gives owners much less room for error than one heading toward 60%.

This is currently one of the clearest reasons to be selective about Oman’s next wave of resort apartments.

3–5 star hotel indicator 2025 full year H1 2026 vs H1 2025
Guests 2.38m, +10.8% 992,009, -13.0%
Occupancy 56.7% 46.3%, down from 54.6%
Revenue OMR297.3m, +22.2% OMR124.2m, -12.3%
H1 2026 European guests 246,603
H1 2026 Asian guests 162,978

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Will Oman’s Golden Residency bring enough foreign property buyers?

Oman’s Golden Residency should bring more international buyers, although it is unlikely to absorb thousands of mediocre apartments by itself.

The current government programme offers renewable 10-year residency to qualifying investors and explicitly lists property ownership in tourism zones as an eligible investment route.

That makes high-value ITC property more useful to some international buyers. A home can now combine personal use, investment exposure and a longer-term residence strategy.

This is especially relevant for wealthier buyers comparing Oman with Dubai, Abu Dhabi or other Gulf markets where property and residency are increasingly sold together.

Oman still lacks the scale of business migration, secondary-market liquidity and international property trading found in Dubai. Residency adds another reason to buy, but it does not remove the need for a good property at a sensible price.

A weak unit does not suddenly become attractive because the buyer receives a residence benefit.

Is Oman already building too many normal homes?

Yes, some parts of Oman already show what happens when developers build faster than local demand can absorb new apartments.

Cavendish Maxwell estimated that Oman added around 38,400 residential units during 2024, lifting total housing stock to roughly 1.1 million homes. Its projection then pointed to another 62,800 units between 2025 and 2030.

Muscat alone received roughly 15,500 new apartments during 2024.

That volume helps explain something anyone driving through parts of Muscat can see: plenty of “to let” signs, especially on older apartment buildings. Property consultants have repeatedly described tenants moving from dated stock into newer buildings without the city necessarily gaining an equivalent number of new households.

The newer building fills, while another one loses its tenant.

Foreign-owned waterfront property behaves differently from an old apartment block in Al Khuwair or Ghubrah, so national oversupply cannot simply be transferred onto Al Mouj or AIDA. Still, Oman has already shown that individual residential segments can build ahead of demand.

As more premium stock arrives, weaker projects will probably feel the pressure first through rents, incentives and longer resale periods.

Residential supply measure Approximate scale
Oman housing stock after 2024 ~1.1 million units
Homes delivered during 2024 ~38,400
New Muscat apartments during 2024 ~15,500
Projected additional Oman homes, 2025–2030 ~62,800
Planned AIDA homes ~3,500
Sustainable City–Yiti houses + apartments ~1,525

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Are rents in Al Mouj and Muscat Hills starting to crack?

No. Prime foreign-buyable communities are currently holding up much better than weaker parts of Muscat.

Recent rental data put a two-bedroom apartment in Al Mouj at roughly OMR710 per month in early 2026. Savills recorded a quarterly increase of around 3%, while four-bedroom villa rents reached roughly OMR1,770.

Muscat Hills two-bedroom rents were close to OMR490 and also edged higher.

The contrast with ordinary neighbourhoods is useful. Hamptons tracked two-bedroom asking rents in Al Khuwair falling from around OMR350–400 during 2024 to OMR280 late in 2025. Madinat Sultan Qaboos also softened, while Al Mouj recovered after dipping earlier in 2025.

Current market data therefore show tenants continuing to pay a meaningful premium for the strongest lifestyle communities.

That is one of the better arguments against saying Oman has already overbuilt foreign-owned housing. If Al Mouj were struggling with excessive prime supply today, rental weakness would be much easier to see.

The concern is what happens when several thousand additional premium homes start competing with it.

Muscat area Recent 2BR monthly rent Current direction
Al Mouj ~OMR710 Firm / slightly higher
Muscat Hills ~OMR490 Slightly higher
Qurum ~OMR350–470 depending on source/specification Broadly stable
Madinat Sultan Qaboos ~OMR450–475 Softer
Al Khuwair ~OMR280–385 depending on building/source Softer

Is Yiti where Oman could actually build too many foreign-buyer homes?

Yes. Yiti is currently the clearest place where Oman could end up with too much premium investment property.

AIDA plans roughly 3,500 homes. The Sustainable City–Yiti adds around 300 houses and 1,225 apartments, alongside serviced residences and hospitality.

Together, those two developments alone can eventually exceed 5,000 conventional homes.

Al Mouj currently has around 8,000 properties after roughly two decades of development. So Yiti’s two headline projects are planning residential capacity equivalent to more than 60% of Al Mouj’s current scale.

The comparison becomes even more striking because Yiti is creating most of its destination infrastructure at the same time as its housing. Al Mouj already has a school, nursery, 90-plus retail and dining outlets, hotels, golf, a marina, parks and more than 19,000 residents.

Yiti still has to build that daily life around its buyers.

The long development schedules help enormously. AIDA stretches through 2034 and The Sustainable City is releasing homes by phase. Even so, Yiti will face a real test once several completed phases start competing for tenants and resale buyers.

If we are looking for a future oversupply problem in Oman, this is the first place we would look.

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Are AIDA, Yiti and Oman’s other luxury projects chasing the same buyer?

Quite often, yes. Different branding hides a fair amount of overlap in the customer these Oman projects need.

AIDA sells dramatic cliffs, golf, resort living and branded luxury. The Sustainable City–Yiti focuses on sustainability, a beachside community and family life. Al Bustan will offer only 91 Four Seasons residences. Telal Al Qurum has the advantage of a much more central Muscat location.

Those are meaningful differences, particularly at the very top end.

But a large part of the buyer pool still consists of the same people: affluent Omanis, expatriate professionals, GCC buyers, overseas investors and second-home purchasers who want security, lifestyle and potentially residency.

The biggest competition will probably emerge among one- and two-bedroom investment apartments. A buyer comparing several OMR100,000–OMR200,000 off-plan units can move between projects quite easily.

A waterfront villa with genuinely limited supply has fewer substitutes. Ninety-one Four Seasons residences also behave differently from hundreds of similar apartments released across several phases.

Oman can therefore have too many investment apartments while still having strong demand for scarce villas and branded homes. That distinction will become more important as the pipeline grows.

Does Al Mouj prove Oman can absorb another huge foreign-buyer community?

Al Mouj proves that a large international community can work extremely well in Oman, although copying Al Mouj will be much harder than copying its amenities.

The numbers are impressive. Al Mouj currently reports more than 19,000 residents living across roughly 8,000 properties and representing 94 nationalities. The development attracts around 4.9 million visits a year and includes more than 90 retail and dining outlets, an international school, nursery, hotels, golf and a marina.

OMRAN has previously attributed roughly OMR880 million of foreign direct investment and ownership to Al Mouj over its history.

That gives Oman something many newer foreign-property markets lack: a proven example of international buyers purchasing, living, renting and spending inside the same community for years.

The harder part to reproduce is time.

Al Mouj accumulated residents, shops, schools, hotels and resale liquidity over roughly twenty years. A new project can build a golf course and a beach club much faster than it can build a community where thousands of people already know they want to live.

AIDA’s planned residential stock alone is equal to almost 44% of Al Mouj’s current total. That is a serious absorption target even with a decade to deliver it.

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Are Oman developers releasing these new homes slowly enough?

For now, yes. The way Oman’s largest projects are being phased is probably the strongest protection against oversupply.

Dar Global says AIDA will be developed over eight to ten years. Phase one is expected to complete around 2027–2028, while the overall development is scheduled through 2034.

The Sustainable City–Yiti has also been sold in phases. Its first phase sold out and phase two is currently on sale.

Telal Al Qurum goes much further. The government agreement gives the OMR230 million project a development period of roughly 15 years.

That spacing gives developers room to respond if demand weakens. Future phases can be slowed, redesigned or launched later.

Announced masterplan units should not be treated like homes that already exist.

The risk would rise quickly if several developers kept releasing similar apartments even after earlier completed phases started showing weak rents or heavy resale inventory. We are not clearly at that point today.

What would prove Oman has finally built too many foreign-buyer properties?

We would know Oman had crossed into oversupply when completed ITC homes became noticeably harder to rent and resell, even while developers kept releasing new units.

The first thing to watch is the gap between developer sales and life after handover.

Off-plan projects can report strong sales years before anyone has to find a tenant or resale buyer. The tougher test begins once hundreds of owners receive keys around the same time.

At that stage, several things should move together if supply has genuinely run ahead of demand: achievable rents would soften, ready apartments would start undercutting new developer stock, resale listings would sit for longer and incentives would become more generous.

Occupancy inside the communities is even more revealing. A project can technically be “sold out” while many units remain dark because investors bought them without end users lined up.

Oman does not currently publish enough project-level vacancy, resale and nationality data to track all of this cleanly. That makes handover performance much more useful than headline launch sales over the next few years.

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Which Oman properties are most exposed if oversupply gets worse?

High-volume off-plan apartments in new resort districts look much more exposed today than scarce homes inside mature communities.

Yiti sits at the top of that risk list because more than 5,000 conventional homes are planned across AIDA and The Sustainable City before we count every other future project nearby.

AIDA in particular will eventually contain thousands of units. Buyers entering the same development at different phases may end up competing with one another on the resale and rental market.

Al Bustan has a very different supply profile. Ninety-one Four Seasons residences create natural scarcity, especially in a recognisable beachfront location.

Al Mouj also has a stronger defensive position because the community already contains schools, retail, hotels, golf, a marina and more than 19,000 residents. A buyer there can see the neighbourhood functioning today rather than betting entirely on what it might become.

Jebel Sifah and Hawana Salalah have their own risks, particularly tourism seasonality, although both have been developing for years.

For a buyer today, “foreign freehold” is far too broad a category. A completed villa in an established community and the tenth floor of a large off-plan apartment scheme may have completely different supply risk.

Could cheaper prices actually help Oman absorb more foreign-buyer properties?

Yes. Some price pressure could broaden Oman’s buyer base and make foreign ownership more attractive to expatriates who currently rent.

Foreign buyers are still concentrated in designated tourism developments, and those communities tend to be expensive compared with normal Muscat neighbourhoods.

Recent market data illustrate the gap. Al Mouj sits near the top of Muscat at roughly OMR140 per square foot in one current market dataset, while several ordinary residential districts sit closer to OMR60–100.

That premium limits the number of expatriates who can switch from renting to owning.

If competition between new ITCs eventually pushes entry prices lower, foreign ownership could become realistic for a wider group of long-term residents rather than mainly wealthy investors and second-home buyers.

The adjustment becomes dangerous only when price cuts combine with weak rents and forced resales. A moderate reset in developer pricing could actually help Oman create the deeper buyer pool that all this new supply requires.

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Is Oman building too many foreign-buyer properties?

Not across Oman as a whole, but the country is now building enough foreign-buyable housing that parts of the market can realistically become oversupplied.

The evidence does not support calling today’s market a nationwide glut. Al Mouj rents remain strong. The expatriate population has climbed to roughly 2.35 million. Phase one at The Sustainable City–Yiti sold out with Omanis making up 55% of buyers. Property transaction values are also rising sharply, with total traded value up 18.4% during the first three months of 2026.

Supply is still moving much faster than the proven buyer base in some places.

AIDA and The Sustainable City alone plan more than 5,000 homes around Yiti, equivalent to more than 60% of Al Mouj’s current residential scale. Meanwhile, Oman already added around 38,400 homes nationally in 2024 and could add tens of thousands more through 2030.

The latest tourism numbers also deserve more attention than the bullish 2025 figures. Three- to five-star hotel guests fell 13% during the first half of 2026 and occupancy dropped to 46.3%. That does not kill the resort-property thesis, but it makes thousands of investment-oriented holiday apartments harder to underwrite confidently.

Phasing is what keeps the situation manageable for now. AIDA stretches through 2034, Telal Al Qurum runs across roughly 15 years, and developers can slow later phases if buyers disappear.

Our conclusion is fairly sharp: Oman is probably not building too many foreign-buyer homes overall yet, but it may already be planning too many similar investment apartments in a few emerging resort locations.

Yiti is the clearest test.

If its thousands of homes eventually fill with residents and tenants and develop a healthy resale market, Oman will have proved that foreign and domestic demand can grow alongside the pipeline. If the projects sell well off-plan but completed apartments later compete aggressively for tenants and buyers, the oversupply problem will have become obvious.

Today, Oman still has time to avoid that outcome. The next wave of handovers will tell us far more than the next wave of launch announcements.

OUR METHODOLOGY

This analysis tests whether Oman is building too many properties for foreign buyers by comparing the size and timing of the new development pipeline with the depth of the buyer pool, transaction activity, expatriate growth, tourism demand, residential supply and rental performance in established premium communities.

We separate announced supply from immediately available supply. Large masterplans such as AIDA, The Sustainable City–Yiti and Telal Al Qurum are assessed alongside their development schedules, because several thousand homes delivered over a decade create a very different market from several thousand homes handed over at once.

We also do not assume that every property available to foreigners depends on a foreign purchaser. The buyer composition at The Sustainable City–Yiti, where Omani nationals represented 55% of buyers in the sold-out first phase, is used to show how domestic demand can materially widen the absorption base for ITC projects.

Transaction values and transaction volumes are assessed separately. Rising traded value can support premium property without proving that Oman has suddenly gained thousands of additional buyers, so NCSI data on sale-contract numbers are considered alongside the monetary value of real-estate trading.

Tourism is treated as a separate demand channel because resort-oriented projects depend more heavily on discretionary visitors, second-home purchasers and short-term rental demand than ordinary residential communities. We therefore compare the strong full-year 2025 hotel results with the weaker guest, revenue and occupancy figures reported during the first half of 2026.

For existing-market evidence, Al Mouj is used as the main benchmark because it is Oman’s most mature large-scale foreign-ownership community. Its residential scale, resident population, international mix, amenities and current rental performance give us a practical reference point for judging what newer developments such as Yiti will eventually need to reproduce.

We do not define oversupply simply as a large number of announced units. The more useful test is what happens after delivery: achievable rents, occupancy, resale liquidity, time on market, developer incentives and whether completed units begin competing heavily with later off-plan phases.

Key sources used for this analysis include OMRAN Group on AIDA’s investment and residential scale, Dar Global’s interim report on AIDA’s development schedule, The Sustainable City–Yiti on its residential masterplan, The Sustainable City–Yiti on Phase 1 sales and Omani buyer share, Al Mouj on its residential scale, residents and amenities, NCSI on real-estate trading and sale contracts, NCSI on Oman’s 2025 hotel market, Oman News Agency using NCSI data for the H1 2026 hotel market, NCSI’s population statistics, the Government of Oman’s Golden Residency programme, Gov.om on foreign ownership in tourism complexes, Cavendish Maxwell on residential stock and 2024 deliveries, Cavendish Maxwell on projected residential supply through 2030, and Oman News Agency on Telal Al Qurum.

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