Morocco property prices 2026: going up or cooling down?

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Morocco Property Pack

Everything you need to know before buying real estate is included in our Morocco Property Pack

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SANDS OF WEALTH

A team specialized in real estate investing in MENA countries (Morocco, UAE, Oman, etc.)

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Morocco. If you'd like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

How have Morocco's average property prices changed over the past five years in major cities and secondary markets?

Morocco's property prices have demonstrated consistent upward momentum across all major urban centers over the past five years.

In Casablanca, apartment prices increased from approximately 11,500 MAD/m² in 2020 to 13,900 MAD/m² by September 2025, representing a cumulative growth of 21% over five years. Villas in the economic capital now average 20,500 MAD/m², with luxury areas like Anfa commanding up to 30,000 MAD/m². Rabat has seen similar appreciation, with apartment prices climbing from 12,000 MAD/m² to 14,500 MAD/m² during the same period. Marrakesh residential properties averaged 13,000 MAD/m² in 2025, up from around 10,500 MAD/m² in 2020.

Secondary markets have experienced moderate but steady growth, typically lagging major cities by 1-2 percentage points annually. Cities like Tangier offer apartments at 10,000-14,000 MAD/m² in central areas, while Agadir ranges from 8,000-12,000 MAD/m² depending on proximity to the coast. The overall national real estate price index rose by 0.15% year-over-year in Q1 2025, following consistent annual growth rates of 3-7% since 2020.

It's something we develop in our Morocco property pack.

What are the most recent forecasts from local banks and real estate associations for housing prices in 2026?

Local financial institutions and real estate associations project continued moderate price appreciation through 2026.

Bank Al-Maghrib's latest reports suggest residential property prices will grow 3-5% annually through 2026, supported by Morocco's projected GDP growth of 3.7% in 2026. The National Federation of Real Estate Developers (FNPI) forecasts similar growth trajectories, emphasizing that the persistent housing deficit of 340,000 units will continue supporting price levels. Major Moroccan banks including Attijariwafa Bank and BMCE Bank project urban property appreciation of 4-6% in 2026, with luxury segments potentially seeing higher gains of 6-8%.

Real estate consultancy firms operating in Morocco anticipate that World Cup 2030 preparations will accelerate price growth in host cities, particularly Casablanca, Rabat, and Marrakesh. Industry forecasts suggest mainstream properties will see 2-4% increases, while urban and luxury segments could experience 3-7% annual growth. The consensus among market analysts is that Morocco's strategic infrastructure investments and tourism expansion will sustain price momentum through 2026.

Construction costs are projected to increase by 3-5% annually, which will likely translate into higher property prices as developers pass these costs to buyers.

How much are mortgage rates expected to rise or fall by 2026, and how does that impact affordability?

Mortgage rates in Morocco are expected to see modest increases through 2026, though they will remain competitive by regional standards.

As of September 2025, fixed mortgage rates range from 4.5-6%, while variable rates offer 3.75-5% options. Bank Al-Maghrib's policy rate currently sits at 2.25%, the lowest level since November 2022. However, analysts expect gradual tightening as inflation is projected to rise from 1.0% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026. This could push mortgage rates up by 25-50 basis points, meaning fixed rates might reach 4.8-6.5% by late 2026.

The impact on affordability remains manageable for qualified buyers. Banks typically require 20-30% down payments, and government subsidy programs continue supporting first-time buyers with income-based assistance. The Direct Housing Support Program offers MAD 100,000 subsidies for properties under MAD 300,000 and MAD 70,000 subsidies for properties between MAD 300,000-700,000. Rising rates will primarily affect highly leveraged buyers, while cash buyers and those with substantial down payments will see minimal impact.

Foreign buyers can still access Moroccan mortgage facilities, though additional documentation requirements apply compared to local purchasers.

What's the current supply of new housing developments compared to demand, and are there signs of oversupply or shortage?

Morocco faces a significant housing shortage with demand substantially outpacing supply across all major markets.

The housing deficit stands at approximately 340,000 units as of 2025, down from 1.2 million units in 2002 but still representing substantial unmet demand. Annual housing demand grows by 125,000 units yearly, while construction completion rates average 120,000-130,000 units annually. This supply-demand imbalance continues supporting price growth despite some transaction volume declines in early 2025.

Construction activity has intensified significantly, with the construction market expected to grow 3.3% in 2025 and maintain a 2.8% CAGR through 2029. New residential developments are concentrated in urban peripheries and emerging neighborhoods, but city center availability remains extremely limited. Government initiatives target social housing construction of 70,000-100,000 units annually through public-private partnerships.

No signs of oversupply exist in prime urban locations or tourist destinations. Secondary markets show balanced supply-demand dynamics, while coastal areas experience acute shortages driven by tourism recovery and vacation rental demand.

How are foreign buyers influencing property prices, and is their interest projected to increase or decline?

Foreign buyers have become a major price driver in Morocco's property market, with their influence expected to strengthen through 2026.

Foreign Buyer Segment	Primary Markets	Price Impact
European Investors	Marrakesh, Casablanca	15-25% premium in luxury areas
Middle Eastern Buyers	Casablanca, Rabat	10-20% above local prices
North American Investors	Marrakesh, Agadir	20-30% premium for coastal properties
Gulf Country Nationals	All major cities	Significant influence on luxury segment
French Diaspora	Casablanca, Rabat	Moderate impact across all segments

Foreign investment in real estate surged by 55% between 2024 and 2025, with foreign buyers now owning approximately 10% of all luxury properties in Morocco. European and Middle Eastern investors particularly favor Marrakesh and Casablanca, often paying 15-30% premiums above local market rates for prime properties. The 2025 Finance Bill includes additional incentives targeting foreign investors, especially in automotive and green hydrogen sectors, which indirectly supports residential demand.

Projections for 2026 indicate continued strong foreign interest, driven by Morocco's political stability, favorable exchange rates, and World Cup 2030 preparations. Tourism recovery supports vacation rental investments, while business-related relocations drive permanent residence purchases.

What government policies and tax incentives are currently shaping the real estate market?

The Moroccan government has implemented comprehensive policy reforms that actively support property market growth through 2026.

The Direct Housing Support Program represents the cornerstone of current policy, providing substantial subsidies for qualifying buyers. Citizens receive MAD 100,000 assistance for properties under MAD 300,000 and MAD 70,000 for properties between MAD 300,000-700,000. As of February 2025, over 51,900 applications were submitted, with 75% targeting properties below MAD 300,000. The 2024 Finance Law expanded this program through 2028, requiring properties to serve as primary residences for five years.

Corporate tax reforms introduced in 2023 will fully implement by 2026, reducing rates from 31% to 20% for companies with profits below $10 million and those in Industrial Acceleration Zones. VAT exemptions apply to social housing projects (50-80 m²) with price caps at MAD 250,000, while middle-income housing costs are capped at MAD 6,000/m² for units ranging 80-120 m². Investment projects valued above $20 million receive VAT exemptions on imported equipment and materials.

The government allocated MAD 340 billion ($34.4 billion) for public investment in 2025, prioritizing infrastructure, housing, and transportation projects that support property market fundamentals.

How do rental yields in Morocco's main cities compare to regional benchmarks?

Morocco's rental yields remain attractive compared to regional benchmarks, with most major cities offering superior returns to neighboring North African markets.

Casablanca delivers gross rental yields ranging from 5.61% to 8.18%, averaging 7% across different neighborhoods and property types. Marrakesh offers slightly higher yields of 6% to 8.38% with a city average of 7.08%, reflecting lower property prices relative to achievable rents. Rabat provides more conservative returns of 5.91% to 7.14%, averaging 6.68%, while Tangier stands out with yields between 6.89% and 9.28%, averaging 8%.

Agadir shows lower yields of 4.4% to 5.19% with a 4.82% average, reflecting higher property prices in this premium coastal destination. These yields compare favorably to regional benchmarks, with Tunisia averaging 4-6%, Algeria 3-5%, and Egypt 5-7% in comparable urban markets. Morocco's yields are trending stable to slightly upward as tourism recovery drives occupancy rates higher and rental demand strengthens.

Prime city centers and tourist areas command premium rents, while emerging neighborhoods offer higher yield potential with moderate appreciation prospects.

What role is tourism recovery playing in property demand, particularly for vacation rentals?

Tourism recovery has become a primary driver of property demand, especially impacting vacation rental and second home markets in 2025.

Morocco welcomed 17.4 million tourists in 2024, exceeding pre-pandemic 2019 levels by 35% and generating record tourism revenues of MAD 112 billion ($12.4 billion). The first half of 2025 saw 8.9 million arrivals, representing 19% growth compared to 2024. Marrakesh accounts for nearly 40% of tourist visits, followed by Agadir (25%), Casablanca (9%), and Tangier (7%), directly correlating with vacation rental demand in these cities.

The government's 2023-2026 "Light in Action" tourism strategy aims to attract 17.5 million tourists by 2026 and 26 million by 2030. World Cup 2030 co-hosting with Spain and Portugal is accelerating infrastructure investment and accommodation demand. Morocco plans to expand accommodation capacity to 340,000 beds by 2026, creating opportunities for private vacation rental investors.

Vacation rental revenues have grown substantially, with online booking platforms reporting 15-25% annual increases in Morocco bookings. Coastal destinations like Agadir and emerging areas like Taghazout see particularly strong demand from European tourists seeking alternative accommodations to traditional hotels.

How are construction costs evolving in Morocco, and how might this affect property prices by 2026?

Construction costs in Morocco are rising steadily, with increases projected to continue through 2026, directly impacting new property prices.

Current construction costs range from MAD 3,000 to MAD 10,000 per square meter depending on location, materials quality, and design complexity. Material costs represent the largest component, with cement, steel, and imported finishing materials experiencing 5-10% annual price increases. Labor costs have risen approximately 20% over the past decade but remain competitive due to Morocco's historically low wage base.

The construction market is projected to grow at 2.8% CAGR through 2029, reaching MAD 112.33 billion by 2029. Material price volatility affects steel and electrical components most significantly, while local materials like sand and aggregates remain more stable. Transportation costs add pressure due to higher fuel prices and supply chain challenges.

By 2026, construction cost increases of 3-5% annually are expected, which developers will likely pass through to property prices. New residential projects will see the most significant impact, while existing property values benefit from this replacement cost effect. Premium materials and luxury finishes face the highest cost pressures, potentially widening the gap between standard and luxury property segments.

We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Morocco versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you're planning to invest there.

What is the trend in urban population growth and household formation rates?

Morocco's urbanization continues accelerating, creating sustained housing demand that underpins property price growth through 2026.

The urban population reached 65% of Morocco's total population by 2023, up from approximately 60% in 2020, with annual urban growth rates of 1.8%. This represents nearly 24 million urban residents, with projections indicating 70% urbanization by 2030. Major cities absorb most of this growth, with Casablanca, Rabat, and Marrakesh experiencing the highest net migration rates from rural areas.

Household formation rates are increasing due to demographic changes, with Morocco's youth population (aged 15-24) numbering 5.95 million in 2023. Despite youth unemployment reaching 39.5% in 2024, university graduates and skilled workers continue migrating to urban centers for employment opportunities. The rising middle class, supported by economic growth, creates new homebuying demand.

Family formation patterns show nearly 9.96 million children aged 0-14 in 2023, indicating strong future household formation potential. Government support for first-time homebuyers specifically targets young families, with financial assistance programs making urban property ownership more accessible. This demographic trend supports sustained housing demand and price appreciation in major urban markets.

Are Moroccan banks tightening or loosening credit conditions for homebuyers and developers?

Moroccan banks maintain cautiously supportive lending policies, with conditions remaining relatively stable through 2025 and into 2026.

Credit growth to the non-financial sector is expected to accelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 5.9% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, according to Bank Al-Maghrib forecasts. Mortgage lending continues growing despite transaction volume declines, indicating banks' confidence in the property market's fundamentals. Average real estate loan rates stood at 5.18% in Q1 2025, slightly up from 5.02% in the previous quarter.

Banks have introduced specialized programs targeting first-time buyers and middle-income households, often in partnership with government subsidy schemes. Developer financing remains available for qualified projects, particularly those aligned with social housing mandates or tourism infrastructure. Credit conditions haven't tightened significantly, though banks maintain prudent lending standards requiring documented income and adequate down payments.

Bank Al-Maghrib announced new support programs for very small enterprises (VSEs) with preferential refinancing rates, indirectly supporting construction sector financing. Foreign buyers can access mortgage facilities with additional documentation requirements, maintaining international investor access to credit markets.

How do Morocco's property prices compare with neighboring countries and emerging markets?

Morocco's property prices remain competitively positioned against regional benchmarks, offering significant value relative to emerging market alternatives.

Country/Market	Average Price per m² (USD)	Rental Yield Range
Morocco (Major Cities)	$1,200-$2,800	5.5-8.5%
Tunisia	$800-$1,500	4-6%
Egypt (Cairo)	$600-$1,200	5-7%
Turkey (Istanbul)	$1,500-$3,500	4-6%
UAE (Dubai)	$2,500-$8,000	4-7%
Portugal (Lisbon)	$3,000-$6,000	3-5%
Spain (Madrid)	$2,800-$5,500	3-4.5%

Morocco offers superior value compared to European markets, with prices 50-70% lower than comparable Spanish or Portuguese properties while delivering higher rental yields. Compared to regional neighbors, Morocco commands premiums of 20-40% above Tunisia and Egypt, reflecting superior infrastructure, political stability, and tourism appeal.

The country's strategic positioning between Europe and Africa, combined with infrastructure investments and tourism growth, supports continued appreciation potential. Room for further price growth exists, particularly as infrastructure projects complete and international connectivity improves through 2026.

What specific factors are driving price growth in luxury versus mainstream segments?

Luxury and mainstream property segments show distinct growth drivers, with luxury markets experiencing stronger price appreciation.

Luxury properties (above MAD 2 million) benefit from intense foreign buyer competition, particularly in prime locations like Marrakesh's Palm Grove, Casablanca's Anfa district, and Rabat's Agdal neighborhood. These segments see 6-8% annual growth compared to 3-5% for mainstream properties. International buyers typically pay 15-30% premiums for turnkey luxury properties with modern amenities.

Mainstream properties (MAD 300,000-1,500,000) benefit from government subsidy programs and growing middle-class demand. First-time buyer assistance and mortgage accessibility support steady demand in this segment. New developments in emerging neighborhoods offer better value but appreciate more slowly than established luxury areas.

Luxury segment growth outpaces mainstream by 2-3 percentage points annually, driven by limited supply of premium properties and strong international demand. Tourism-related luxury properties in Marrakesh and coastal areas show the highest appreciation rates.

It's something we develop in our Morocco property pack.

How is World Cup 2030 preparation affecting property markets in host cities?

World Cup 2030 preparations are creating anticipatory demand and infrastructure-driven price appreciation in designated host cities.

Morocco will co-host the 2030 FIFA World Cup with Spain and Portugal, with matches planned for Casablanca, Rabat, Marrakesh, and potentially other major cities. Infrastructure investments include airport expansions, hotel developments, and transportation upgrades that directly benefit surrounding property markets. Stadium modernization and new venue construction create localized demand spikes.

Speculative investment has already begun in host city markets, with investors anticipating rental income opportunities during the tournament and long-term value appreciation from improved infrastructure. Hotel and accommodation capacity expansions to 340,000 beds by 2026 create competition for vacation rental operators while supporting overall tourism demand.

Property prices in host cities are expected to outperform national averages by 1-2 percentage points annually through 2030, with the strongest impact in areas near stadiums, airports, and tourist attractions. The tournament legacy includes permanent infrastructure improvements that support long-term property value appreciation.

What are the emerging neighborhood trends and where are the best value opportunities?

Emerging neighborhoods in major cities offer the strongest value appreciation potential as urban expansion continues.

1. **Casablanca periphery**: Areas like Ain Sebaa and Sidi Bernoussi offer 25-40% lower prices than city center with strong growth potential2. **Rabat expansion zones**: New developments in Temara and Sale provide access to the capital with more affordable entry points3. **Marrakesh outskirts**: Neighborhoods beyond the medina offer authentic experiences with lower purchase prices and strong rental potential4. **Tangier development areas**: Emerging districts benefit from port expansion and Mediterranean connectivity5. **Coastal secondary markets**: Towns like Essaouira and smaller coastal destinations offer lifestyle investments with appreciation potential

These areas typically offer 20-50% lower purchase prices than established neighborhoods while maintaining good rental yield potential. Infrastructure development and urban expansion drive gradual gentrification and price appreciation. Transportation improvements, particularly high-speed rail connections to 43 cities by 2040, enhance these areas' investment appeal.

Investors should focus on neighborhoods with planned infrastructure improvements, proximity to employment centers, and growing expatriate communities for optimal appreciation potential.

How do transaction costs and buying processes affect overall property investment returns?

Total transaction costs in Morocco significantly impact investment returns, requiring careful budget planning beyond the property purchase price.

Complete buying costs typically add 6-10% to the property purchase price. Registration taxes range from 4-7% on a progressive scale, with higher rates applying to luxury properties above MAD 2 million. Notary fees add 1-2.5% to total costs, while VAT represents 18% for primary residences and 20% for luxury properties. Annual property tax equals 10% of assessed rental value.

For a $225,000 property, total buying costs range from $13,500 to $22,500, bringing total investment to $238,500-$247,500. Foreign buyers face additional costs for legal representation, currency conversion, and document translation. Property management fees for rental properties typically cost 8-12% of rental income for full-service management.

These costs impact overall returns but remain competitive compared to European markets. Rental yield calculations should account for vacancy periods, maintenance costs, and annual property taxes to determine net investment returns.

What market risks should property investors consider for 2026?

Several market risks could impact Morocco's property market performance in 2026, though most remain manageable within the current positive outlook.

Economic risks include potential global recession impacts affecting tourism demand and foreign investment flows. Morocco's economy depends significantly on tourism revenues and remittances from overseas Moroccans, making it vulnerable to European economic downturns. Rising interest rates could reduce affordability for leveraged buyers, though government subsidies provide some protection.

Currency risk affects foreign investors, as MAD depreciation could impact USD or EUR-denominated returns. However, Morocco maintains relatively stable exchange rates and foreign reserve levels. Political stability risks remain minimal given Morocco's constitutional monarchy and stable governance structures.

Market-specific risks include potential oversupply in luxury segments if foreign investment suddenly declines, and construction delays that could affect new development timelines. Climate change impacts, particularly drought affecting agricultural regions, could influence internal migration patterns and urban housing demand.

It's something we develop in our Morocco property pack.

Conclusion

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.

Sources

1. Global Property Guide - Morocco Property Market Analysis
2. Sands of Wealth - Average Property Price Morocco
3. Sands of Wealth - Morocco Price Forecasts
4. Sands of Wealth - Morocco Real Estate Trends
5. Vaneau Morocco - Real Estate 2025 Rising Prices
6. Morocco World News - Bank Al-Maghrib Interest Rate
7. Armonia Solutions - Mortgage Rates Morocco
8. Business Wire - Morocco Construction Industry Report
9. Travel and Tour World - Morocco Tourism Growth
10. Ecofin Agency - Morocco Public Investment 2025