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SUMMARY
Dubai South is partly overpriced today: the long-term airport case is still strong, but several premium off-plan projects are already charging buyers for a large chunk of the future upside.
The district has already gone through its big rerating. Ready apartment prices rose sharply across comparable periods, while the latest Bayut indices show much slower growth, which suggests the easy “buy the airport story before everyone else” phase has largely passed.
Dubai South is no longer one market. Ready apartments can still trade around AED 1,100–1,300 per square foot, while newer Emaar South and Azizi Venice stock can sit around AED 1,700–2,000, so the same location narrative now comes with very different valuation risk.
The clearest valuation warning is the gap between prices and rents. Sale prices rerated much faster than rental income, which means buyers have accepted lower immediate yields because they expect the area to mature around Al Maktoum Airport and Expo City.
That future is real, not fictional. Dubai is committing AED 128 billion to Al Maktoum International Airport, with an eventual 260-million-passenger target, while Dubai South already has aviation, logistics and Expo City activity beside it.
The problem is timing. Homes can be completed, mortgaged and competing for tenants years before the full airport economy, schools, retail, transport links and employment base catch up.
Supply therefore matters more here than in a scarce central district. Dubai South has dozens of active projects, very large individual phases, HAYAT adding roughly 2,500 homes, and Emaar South eventually planned for about 22,700 residences.
Yields are still respectable, but they are no longer unusually generous. Depending on the dataset, Dubai South apartments sit around 6%–7% gross, while several comparable affordable communities currently offer higher rental returns.
Emaar South and Azizi Venice deserve the most price discipline. Both benefit from stronger branding and master planning, but once an ordinary apartment pushes much beyond AED 1,700 per square foot, the project itself has to justify the premium rather than the buyer simply relying on “Dubai South” as the investment thesis.
The better-value end of the market still exists. Ready stock in the Residential District and older buildings gives buyers more room for weak rent growth, delays or a few flat years than a new launch priced close to AED 1,900–2,000 per square foot.
Our conclusion is that Dubai South is not broadly overpriced, but parts of it are. We would still buy the right ready or sensibly priced property there; we would be much more cautious with premium off-plan stock where buyers are already paying heavily today for infrastructure and demand that will arrive gradually.
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Why does Dubai South suddenly feel expensive?
Dubai South feels expensive now because buyers have already paid up for a large part of the airport story, even though much of the district that story is supposed to create still has to be built.
The change has been fast. According to Dubai Land Department data analysed by MOVA, ready apartments in Dubai South sold for an average of about AED 1,143 per square foot over the latest 12-month period, up 28% from the previous one. Yet the number of ready-apartment transactions slipped 3%, from 1,314 to 1,279.
That combination is revealing. Buyers were willing to pay much more even though resale activity did not accelerate with prices.
The latest numbers are calmer. Bayut's current Dubai South index is around AED 1,484 per square foot, up only 2.5% over 12 months. Apartments are around AED 1,508, up 2.6%, while villas are close to AED 1,383, up about 2%.
So the big repricing has already happened. A few years ago, the bet was that people were underestimating the south of Dubai. Today, buyers have to decide whether the new prices leave enough upside after everyone else discovered the same airport, Expo City and logistics story.
How expensive is Dubai South property right now?
Dubai South currently sits around AED 1,500 per square foot for apartments, but that headline hides a market where one property can still cost nearly 40% less per square foot than another a few minutes away.
Bayut's latest index puts Dubai South apartments at about AED 1,508 per square foot. Studios are higher at roughly AED 1,730, while one-bedroom apartments are closer to AED 1,436 and two-bedrooms around AED 1,411.
The location gap is even bigger. The Residential District averages roughly AED 1,326 per square foot across property types. Emaar South is around AED 1,570, and Azizi Venice is roughly AED 1,740.
This makes broad statements about Dubai South increasingly unreliable. Someone buying a two-bedroom apartment around AED 1,250–1,300 per square foot in the Residential District is entering at a very different valuation from someone paying AED 1,800–1,900 for a new Emaar launch.
| Dubai South segment | Current price/sq ft | 12-month change | What we see |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South overall | AED 1,484 | +2.5% | Broad market has slowed |
| Dubai South apartments | AED 1,508 | +2.6% | Apartments remain the pricier segment |
| Dubai South villas | AED 1,383 | +2.0% | Villa pricing is broadly flat lately |
| Residential District | AED 1,326 | +8.1% | Still one of the cheaper established pockets |
| Emaar South | AED 1,570 | +3.0% | Clear master-plan premium |
| Azizi Venice | AED 1,740 | +1.8% | Already priced near mainstream Dubai levels |
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Is Dubai South still cheap compared with other parts of Dubai?
Dubai South is still cheaper than Dubai's premium communities, but today it is no longer the obvious bargain it used to be among outer residential areas.
That distinction is important. A buyer comparing Dubai South with Dubai Hills Estate will still see a meaningful discount. Dubai Hills regularly trades above AED 2,000 per square foot, while much of Dubai South sits in the AED 1,300–1,600 range.
The comparison becomes much less flattering once we move to communities targeting similar budgets.
Bayut's H1 market report put Dubai South affordable-apartment transactions around AED 1,190 per square foot. Dubai Silicon Oasis was roughly AED 1,086 and Dubai Sports City AED 1,083. At the same time, Dubai South's average apartment transaction was about AED 842,000, against roughly AED 863,000 in Dubai Silicon Oasis and AED 766,000 in Sports City.
Dubai South therefore no longer wins automatically on either price per square foot or entry ticket.
What buyers receive is different, of course. Dubai South has Al Maktoum International Airport, Expo City and one of Dubai's largest future-development corridors beside it. Dubai Silicon Oasis and Sports City are much more mature today.
Are Dubai South resale homes much cheaper than new launches?
Yes. The resale-versus-new-build gap is now large enough that talking about one single Dubai South price can seriously mislead buyers.
Dubai Land Department data analysed by MOVA puts ready apartment sales at an average of roughly AED 1,143 per square foot over the latest 12 months.
Compare that with current project-level numbers. Azizi Venice is around AED 1,740 per square foot. Emaar South apartments average roughly AED 1,678. Several individual Emaar projects now sit around AED 1,800–1,950.
A ready apartment at AED 1,150 and a new project at AED 1,850 therefore differ by roughly 61% per square foot.
That is not a clean 61% overvaluation because buyers are getting different things. The newer apartment may have better design, amenities, views, developer reputation, payment terms and a stronger future community around it. Older Dubai South stock can be basic.
Still, the gap has become too large to brush aside.
There are currently one-bedroom listings around AED 1,100 per square foot in older buildings such as Kappa Acca 1, while Emaar South one-bedrooms average close to AED 1,688 per square foot. Even inside the same district, buyers can be paying radically different prices for the same broad airport narrative.
| Example | Approx. price/sq ft | Difference versus ready-market average | What drives the gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai South ready apartments | AED 1,143 | — | Existing secondary stock |
| Residential District | AED 1,326 | +16% | Newer/mixed stock |
| Emaar South apartments | AED 1,678 | +47% | Emaar brand, golf community, newer product |
| Azizi Venice | AED 1,740 | +52% | New waterfront-style master plan |
| Some newer Emaar projects | AED 1,800–1,950 | +57% to +71% | New launch, amenities and future-community premium |
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Has Al Maktoum Airport already pushed Dubai South prices up?
Yes. Al Maktoum International Airport has already been priced into Dubai South property to a meaningful degree, so buyers today should not treat the airport as some undiscovered future catalyst.
Dubai's decision to build a new AED 128 billion passenger terminal changed the scale of the story. The planned airport ultimately targets capacity of 260 million passengers a year, 400 aircraft gates and five parallel runways. Dubai also plans to move Dubai International's operations there over time.
The housing implication was made unusually explicit. When the project was announced, Sheikh Mohammed said Dubai would build an entire city around the airport and that demand for housing for one million people would follow.
Property prices moved sharply during the period in which that vision became much more concrete. As seen above, ready Dubai South apartments subsequently recorded a roughly 28% increase across comparable 12-month periods.
We cannot assign the whole increase to the airport. Dubai property prices were rising broadly, interest in off-plan property was high, and Expo City also strengthened the south-Dubai story.
But a buyer would have to ignore the obvious to claim that Al Maktoum is still absent from prices. Investors, brokers and developers have spent the last several years selling that exact idea.
Is Al Maktoum Airport big enough to justify today's Dubai South prices, or are buyers paying too early?
Al Maktoum Airport is strong enough to justify a permanent Dubai South premium, but short-term investors may still be paying for that future too early.
The scale is hard to dismiss. A planned 260-million-passenger airport would be several times larger than today's Dubai International infrastructure. It is intended to pull aviation, logistics, hospitality, maintenance, freight and related businesses toward the south of the city.
Dubai South already has a logistics and aviation base, so the airport is expanding an existing economic cluster rather than trying to create activity from nothing.
Expo City adds another demand engine beside it. Emaar South is roughly five minutes from Al Maktoum Airport and around 15 minutes from Expo City according to Emaar, with a master plan eventually containing about 22,700 homes, 25 neighbourhood parks, an 18-hole golf course and more than 50,000 square metres of retail and dining.
The timing gap is still unavoidable. An apartment bought today can be completed and competing for tenants long before the full airport economy around it exists.
Dubai is building Al Maktoum in phases. The ultimate 260-million-passenger capacity is a long-term target rather than something Dubai South will wake up with after one handover cycle.
Meanwhile, an investor starts paying immediately. The purchase price is fixed today. Service charges arrive once the property is completed. If the investor uses a mortgage, financing costs start even earlier.
A buyer who gets a strong rental yield while waiting can afford that timeline. Someone paying a large off-plan premium and accepting a weak initial yield needs appreciation to do much more of the work.
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Are Dubai South rents rising as fast as property prices?
No. Dubai South sale prices have run well ahead of rents over the recent rerating, which is one of the clearest reasons to be more selective now.
Bayut currently puts Dubai South apartment rents at about AED 86 per square foot per year, only 3.7% higher over the latest 12 months.
The apartment breakdown is even more revealing. Studio rents are up roughly 1%. One-bedroom rents are essentially flat, up less than 1%. Two-bedroom rents have done better at about +7%, while three-bedroom apartment rents are also up around 7%.
Emaar South looks softer in places. Bayut's current one-bedroom rental index there is down roughly 14% over 12 months, and overall rental demand on Bayut has also weakened significantly compared with a year earlier.
We should be careful with portal-demand indices and small submarket samples, but the direction deserves attention when it appears beside flat rents.
Property prices, meanwhile, went through a much larger rerating. Ready apartments were roughly 28% more expensive across MOVA's comparable periods, and Emaar South apartment prices are around 43% above their level two years ago.
That gap means buyers have accepted lower immediate income returns because they expect the location to improve.
| Dubai South rental measure | Current level | 12-month change | What stands out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments overall | AED 86/sq ft/year | +3.7% | Rent growth trails previous sale-price growth |
| Studios | AED 103/sq ft/year | +1.0% | Essentially flat |
| 1-bed apartments | AED 86/sq ft/year | +0.7% | Very little recent growth |
| 2-bed apartments | AED 76/sq ft/year | +7.1% | Strongest mainstream segment |
| Emaar South apartment rents | AED 69/sq ft/year | +2.0% | Premium purchase prices are not matched by premium rent growth |
| Emaar South 1-bed rents | AED 88/sq ft/year | -14.1% | One current pocket of clear softness |
Are Dubai South rental yields still good enough?
Dubai South apartment yields are still respectable today, but they are no longer high enough to make the area look obviously cheap.
Bayut estimated a 7.24% gross ROI for Dubai South apartments in its H1 market report.
That sounds attractive until we compare it with other affordable areas. Dubai Silicon Oasis was around 8.23%, Dubai Sports City 8.12%, and Discovery Gardens reached about 9.06%.
MOVA's separate analysis of actual ready Dubai South apartment transactions estimated a gross yield closer to 6.1%. The numbers differ because the samples and methodologies differ, but both tell us something useful.
Dubai South still produces real rental income. Buyers are not relying entirely on capital appreciation.
Villas are less compelling from a yield perspective. Bayut's H1 estimate for Dubai South villas was about 4.92%, compared with roughly 6.03% in DAMAC Hills 2.
Around 6–7% gross is healthy, but it is not generous enough to make entry price irrelevant.
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Is Dubai South building too many homes?
Dubai South is building enough housing to cap easy price growth if tenant and job creation fail to keep up with the next handover waves.
The amount under construction is substantial. Current project-registration and construction data for Madinat Al Mataar, which covers much of the Dubai South and Emaar South development zone, shows 51 active construction sites.
Nineteen projects carry registered 2026 handover dates. Several are small, but others are enormous. Azizi Venice 7 alone contains more than 2,300 units, while Azizi Venice 14 contains more than 3,400.
That means two phases of one development can represent almost 5,800 homes.
Dubai South Properties is also building HAYAT, a roughly ten-million-square-foot community planned for around 2,500 residences. Emaar South's eventual master plan contains about 22,700 homes.
Some registered completion dates will slip, and not every home will reach the rental market at once. Dubai has repeatedly shown that developers can delay enough supply to soften apparent handover cliffs.
Still, Dubai South has very little scarcity protection. Investors buying there are betting that demand expands quickly enough to consume a huge amount of new stock.
| Current supply indicator | Scale | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Active Madinat Al Mataar construction sites | 51 | Development is happening across the district simultaneously |
| Projects with registered 2026 handovers | 19 | Near-term completions are already substantial |
| Azizi Venice 7 | 2,358 units | One phase can materially change local rental supply |
| Azizi Venice 14 | 3,438 units | Another very large handover pool |
| HAYAT | ~2,500 homes | Dubai South Properties is adding another major community |
| Emaar South full master plan | ~22,700 homes | Long-term supply remains enormous |
Could all that new supply push Dubai South prices down?
Yes, Dubai South could easily go through flat or falling pockets even if the area's long-term airport story turns out to be completely right.
Supply and long-term growth can coexist. The problem is that they rarely arrive at exactly the same speed.
Dubai can build several thousand apartments in a few years. Creating thousands of permanent jobs, filling schools, opening retail, completing transport links and convincing households to relocate takes longer.
That timing gap usually appears first in rents. Owners begin competing for tenants. Incentives increase. Rental growth slows. Investors then become less willing to pay higher resale prices unless future appreciation still looks strong enough.
We can already see hints of that uneven market.
Four-bedroom Dubai South villa prices are down slightly over 12 months on Bayut. Some Emaar South projects are also below their levels six or 12 months ago. Golf Views apartments are around 8% cheaper than a year earlier in Bayut's index, Golf Dale is down about 6%, and Expo Golf Villas is down roughly 3%.
Those are project-level movements rather than a district-wide crash, but they show that the airport story has not removed price discipline.
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Is Emaar South getting too expensive?
Emaar South is currently expensive enough that buyers should expect the Emaar premium to do real work; the brand alone no longer makes the numbers automatically attractive.
Bayut puts Emaar South apartments around AED 1,678 per square foot. That compares with about AED 1,508 across Dubai South apartments and roughly AED 1,300 in parts of the Residential District.
Individual new Emaar projects go higher. Grove Ridge is close to AED 1,975 per square foot. Vista Ridge is around AED 1,936. Golf Hills 2 sits near AED 1,888, and Golf Verge around AED 1,878.
At those levels, Emaar South is no longer being valued like an emerging affordable suburb.
Buyers do get something for the premium. Emaar has already delivered large parts of the community, the golf setting is real, the developer has one of Dubai's strongest resale brands, and the neighbourhood should benefit directly from Al Maktoum's expansion.
The recent price movement is nevertheless worth watching. Overall Emaar South pricing is up only around 3% over 12 months and almost completely flat over six months. Several individual projects are falling.
Golf Views is down roughly 6.7% over six months. Golf Acres is down about 8%. Golf Edge is down more than 7%. Greenway 2 is almost 12% lower than a year ago.
| Emaar South example | Current price/sq ft | Recent movement | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emaar South apartments overall | AED 1,678 | +3.4% YoY | Premium market, now slowing |
| Grove Ridge | AED 1,975 | +9.4% in 6 months | One of the highest-priced launches |
| Vista Ridge | AED 1,936 | +5.6% in 6 months | Already near AED 2,000/sq ft |
| Golf Verge | AED 1,878 | -0.5% in 6 months | High price, little recent momentum |
| Golf Views | AED 1,530 | -8.4% YoY | Resale softness |
| Golf Acres | AED 1,586 | -8.0% in 6 months | Buyers have pushed back on price |
Is Azizi Venice already overpriced?
Azizi Venice looks expensive today, and we would be far more cautious there than in cheaper Dubai South resale stock.
Bayut's overall index for Azizi Venice is around AED 1,740 per square foot, roughly 17% above Dubai South overall and more than 30% above the Residential District.
Two-bedroom units are closer to AED 1,770 per square foot.
That puts an unfinished master-planned community into a price range where buyers can compare it with established parts of Dubai rather than only with other peripheral projects.
Azizi Venice clearly offers more than a standard residential block. The development is trying to create a destination around water, retail, hospitality and entertainment, so a premium makes sense if execution is strong.
The concern comes from the combination of price and scale.
As seen above, individual Azizi Venice phases contain thousands of homes. The project therefore needs to create a deep pool of residents and tenants while a very large amount of competing stock arrives nearby.
The latest price movement also suggests buyers have already absorbed much of the initial story. Azizi Venice overall is only around 1.8% more expensive than a year ago. One-bedroom prices have actually slipped slightly over the same period.
At AED 1,700-plus per square foot, we would want an excellent unit, a convincing view, sensible service charges or a particularly strong purchase price.
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Can you still buy Dubai South property cheaply?
Yes, but today's genuinely cheap Dubai South opportunities are mostly found by choosing the right building or resale unit rather than buying the area blindly.
Bayut's H1 transaction data put the average Dubai South apartment at roughly AED 842,000. Studios averaged about AED 541,000, one-bedrooms AED 827,000 and two-bedrooms around AED 1.41 million.
There is still ready stock below the district's headline price per square foot.
Kappa Acca 1, for example, sits around AED 1,100 per square foot for one-bedroom units and around AED 1,040 for two-bedrooms. The wider Residential District is roughly AED 1,300.
That is a very different proposition from paying AED 1,800–1,950 per square foot in a newer launch.
Cheaper buildings may have weaker amenities, less attractive architecture, older interiors or less powerful branding. They may also appreciate more slowly if buyers keep favouring shiny new projects.
But a buyer around AED 1,100–1,300 per square foot has much more room for things to go wrong than someone paying close to AED 1,900.
Is investor demand for Dubai South starting to weaken?
Dubai South still has strong buyer demand, but the latest numbers show more price resistance than the boom narrative suggests.
The clearest example comes from ready apartments. DLD data analysed by MOVA recorded 1,279 secondary-market apartment sales in the latest 12-month period, down 3%, even as the average price per square foot jumped 28%.
That tells us buyers did not disappear, but turnover failed to rise alongside valuations.
More recent project-level data is also becoming mixed. Emaar South is almost flat over six months. Several Emaar projects have fallen. Azizi Venice is barely higher over 12 months. Villa prices across Dubai South are up only about 2%.
Rental demand is uneven too. Bayut currently shows apartment rental demand in Emaar South down sharply over 12 months, while the Residential District has held up much better.
None of this looks like a broad buyer strike. Developers are still launching projects, new stock is selling and Dubai South remains one of Dubai's most closely watched growth corridors.
What has changed is the willingness to pay almost any higher price simply because the property sits near Al Maktoum.
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What would prove that Dubai South really is overpriced?
Dubai South would look clearly overpriced if sale prices start climbing quickly again while rents stay flat and the next wave of new homes struggles to find tenants.
The first warning would be another double-digit rise in property prices without a comparable improvement in rental income. Dubai South has already absorbed one major round of yield compression. Repeating it would make the investment case much more dependent on future buyers paying even higher prices.
The second warning would come from handovers. With dozens of projects under construction and several thousand units sitting inside individual developments, weak leasing after completion would tell us supply has moved ahead of real residential demand.
Resale behaviour would give us the third clue. Rising listings, longer selling periods, developer incentives and investors accepting prices below their original purchase cost would show that the market is having trouble absorbing previous launch prices.
For now, we see pieces of that picture rather than the whole thing. Rents have slowed. Some projects are falling. Ready sales volumes have softened. Yet broad Dubai South prices are still holding, yields remain respectable and developers are still finding buyers.
So, is Dubai South already overpriced?
Dubai South is partly overpriced today: the district as a whole still has a credible long-term case, but several premium off-plan projects are already charging buyers for a large part of the future upside.
The numbers draw a fairly clear line.
Dubai South apartments currently average about AED 1,508 per square foot on Bayut. Ready apartment transactions tracked from DLD data are closer to AED 1,143. The Residential District sits around AED 1,300. Emaar South apartments are close to AED 1,680, while several newer Emaar projects approach AED 1,900–2,000. Azizi Venice is around AED 1,740.
Those prices cannot all carry the same risk.
At the cheaper end, the Dubai South thesis still makes sense. Buyers can get existing property at roughly AED 1,100–1,300 per square foot, collect a reasonable rental yield and wait for Al Maktoum Airport, Expo City and the wider employment corridor to mature.
Around AED 1,500–1,600, we become much more dependent on the individual project. Build quality, layout, rent, service charges and exact location start mattering more than the Dubai South name.
Once a fairly ordinary off-plan apartment pushes much beyond AED 1,700 per square foot, we would be cautious. At AED 1,900-plus, the property needs to be genuinely special.
The airport remains a very strong reason to own Dubai South over a long horizon. Dubai is spending AED 128 billion on infrastructure designed around an eventual 260 million passengers, and the government explicitly expects a much larger city to form around it.
But everybody knows about it now.
Dubai South's first big opportunity came from buying before that future was fully reflected in prices. Today's opportunity is narrower. We would still buy the right Dubai South property at the right price, especially in the ready market. We would no longer buy Dubai South simply because it is Dubai South.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Dubai South is already overpriced by breaking the question into the parts that can actually change the answer: current pricing, ready versus off-plan valuations, rental support, yields, relative value against comparable Dubai communities, buyer behaviour, incoming supply, and the timing and scale of the airport and Expo City story.
We prioritized the freshest evidence that measured each part directly. Dubai Land Department transaction and project data were used to ground actual sales activity and development progress, while current Bayut market indices were used for community-level and project-level prices, rents, yields and recent changes.
We kept ready homes and new launches separate because combining them can hide very large valuation gaps inside the same district. We also treated “overpriced” as a relative valuation question rather than applying one arbitrary price-per-square-foot cutoff to every building or project.
Price growth was read beside rent growth and yield, rather than in isolation. We also compared Dubai South with similarly priced communities such as Dubai Silicon Oasis and Dubai Sports City, because a discount to premium areas like Dubai Hills Estate does not automatically make Dubai South cheap.
For infrastructure, we relied on first-party sources to establish what is actually planned and being delivered. The airport case is grounded in the Government of Dubai Media Office and Dubai Airports material on Al Maktoum International Airport, including the AED 128 billion expansion and eventual 260-million-passenger capacity.
For future supply and master-plan scale, we used Dubai Land Department project-status data alongside first-party material from Dubai South, Emaar and Expo City. That includes HAYAT's roughly 2,500 planned residences and Emaar South's eventual master plan of about 22,700 homes.
The final conclusion comes from combining these measures rather than relying on one headline number. When price, rent, yield, resale activity and supply point in the same direction, we give that conclusion more weight; where the evidence differs sharply by project or property type, we keep those differences visible.
Key sources used for this analysis include: Dubai Land Department real estate data, Dubai Land Department project status data, the Government of Dubai Media Office on Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai Airports on Dubai World Central, Dubai South on HAYAT, Emaar on the Emaar South master plan, Expo City Dubai's master plan, and Bayut's current Dubai South, Emaar South, Azizi Venice, Residential District, rental, demand and H1 2026 market datasets.
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Ines Benaddi 🇲🇦🇫🇷
Real Estate Agent, Dubai Real Estate
