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SUMMARY
Yes. Dubai home prices are likely to fall a little further from current levels, but the correction should be much harsher for oversupplied apartments than for the city as a whole.
The clearest change is that two very different price measures now agree on direction. ValuStrat has citywide residential values down 1.6% year on year, while Property Index’s mix-adjusted transaction measure is down 2.6%, making the reversal difficult to dismiss as a quirk of one dataset.
Apartments are doing most of the correcting. ValuStrat has apartment values down 4.2% annually while villas are flat, and Property Index shows a similar split, with apartments down 3.3% and villas still 1.7% higher.
Dubai’s biggest risk is not simply that 350,000 homes are scheduled through 2030. It is that actual completions are accelerating at the same time rents have started falling, meaning new supply is arriving just as landlords have less room to defend ambitious purchase prices.
Population growth remains the strongest argument against a crash. Dubai added roughly 332,000 residents in a year, or about 7.5%, comfortably above the roughly 5% annual growth Knight Frank estimates may be needed to keep the current housing pipeline broadly balanced.
The weak point is that construction is committed while future migration is not. If population growth drops toward 3% while annual deliveries approach 80,000 to 100,000 homes, the supply-demand equation changes very quickly.
The enormous off-plan market also makes headline transaction numbers look healthier than the completed-home market many owners actually face. Roughly three quarters of recent residential purchases are off-plan, where developers can use payment plans and incentives that ordinary resale sellers cannot match.
This downturn also looks very different from 2008. Short-term flipping is far less common, cash buyers still dominate transactions, and many owners are sitting on large gains from the previous five years, which reduces the risk of a citywide wave of forced selling.
Luxury property is following its own cycle. Dubai still recorded 296 sales above US$10 million in the first half of the year, worth US$5.1 billion, showing that mainstream apartment weakness can coexist with extremely deep demand at the top of the market.
Our base case is another low-single-digit decline in average Dubai residential values before the market finds a firmer floor. That average will hide much bigger moves underneath it: interchangeable apartments in high-handover districts can lose another 10% or more, while scarce villas and exceptional luxury homes may barely fall at all.
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Have Dubai home prices already started falling?
Yes. Dubai home prices are already falling today, and the correction is broad enough that we can no longer describe it as a few isolated weak projects.
ValuStrat’s latest residential Price Index stood at 219.2 in July, down 0.3% in one month and 1.6% from a year earlier. Apartments were weaker, falling 4.2% year on year.
A second index based on Dubai Land Department transactions tells a similar story. Property Index’s mix-adjusted measure fell 2.1% in July and 2.6% year on year. Its headline index dropped from 220.2 in February to 206.0 in July, a decline of roughly 6.4% in five months.
The methodologies differ, which is useful here. ValuStrat tracks capital values across freehold locations, while Property Index adjusts registered transactions so changes in the mix of homes sold do not distort the result. Two different approaches are now showing annual declines.
The speed of the reversal is striking. Knight Frank was still recording double-digit annual residential price growth late last year. Dubai has moved from rapid appreciation to negative annual growth within a relatively short period.
| Dubai price measure | Earlier level | Latest reading | What it tells us |
|---|---|---|---|
| ValuStrat citywide VPI | Strong annual growth last year | -1.6% YoY | Broad values are now lower |
| Property Index citywide | 220.2 in February | 206.0 in July | About -6.4% in five months |
| Property Index YoY | +10.3% in February | -2.6% in July | Momentum reversed quickly |
| ValuStrat apartments | Positive earlier in the cycle | -4.2% YoY | Apartments are leading the correction |
| Property Index villas | Positive | +1.7% YoY | Villas remain much stronger |
Is Dubai heading for another property crash?
No. Dubai is going through a real housing correction, but the conditions that produced its old crashes are much less visible this time.
The comparison with 2008 explains why.
Knight Frank estimates that Dubai home values fell by around 35% after the global financial crisis. Speculation played a major role. About 25% of homes purchased in 2008 were resold within 12 months.
Last year, that proportion was only 4%.
The exact datasets behind those historical percentages are not perfectly identical, so we should not treat the change as a precise scientific ratio. The difference is still enormous. Short-term flipping now represents a much smaller part of Dubai’s market.
Owners also entered this downturn with substantial accumulated gains. Knight Frank estimates average residential prices rose 82.9% over the previous five and a half years. A buyer who entered early in that cycle can accept a 10% discount today and still leave with a large profit.
That helps explain why Knight Frank has already seen price declines of roughly 5% to 20% in parts of the mainstream market without a wave of distressed selling across Dubai.
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Why did Dubai property prices finally turn down?
Dubai property prices turned down because buyers finally became more selective after an extraordinary five-year run, just as rents softened and a much larger supply pipeline moved closer to completion.
Valuation was the first problem. An 82.9% average increase over five and a half years pushed many homes far ahead of the rents and incomes supporting them. Buyers could tolerate that while prices were climbing quickly because capital gains filled the gap.
That psychology is weaker these days.
Sales activity has also cooled from last year’s exceptional pace. Cavendish Maxwell counted almost 79,200 residential transactions worth AED221.3 billion during the first half of the year. That was still a huge market, but transaction volume was almost 14% lower year on year and sales value fell 15.7%.
At the same time, the rental market stopped providing the same support to valuations. CBRE found average residential rents falling both quarter on quarter and year on year during the second quarter.
Then comes construction. Dubai spent several years selling record numbers of off-plan apartments. Those contracts gradually become actual homes, and the delivery schedule is now much heavier than it was during the early years of the boom.
Buyers have become pickier at exactly the moment when landlords have less pricing power and developers have more stock approaching handover.
Are Dubai apartments likely to fall more than villas?
Yes. Dubai apartments are clearly more exposed to further price declines than villas right now.
ValuStrat has apartment values down 4.2% year on year, while villa values are flat. Dubai Land Department transaction data processed by Property Index shows the same split from another angle: apartments were down 3.3% annually in July, while villas remained 1.7% higher.
Supply is the biggest reason.
Apartments make up roughly four-fifths or more of the homes expected through Dubai’s current development pipeline. A developer can add hundreds of similar one- and two-bedroom units within one tower, and several competing towers can open within the same district.
Villas are harder to replicate, especially inside mature communities where roads, schools, landscaping and community facilities already exist.
The buyer profile also differs. Mira International’s analysis of June transactions found apartments were 79.2% cash purchases. Villas went the other way: around 66.5% used mortgage financing. That points to a larger end-user presence among villa buyers, particularly families buying somewhere to live.
There are exceptions. ValuStrat found Dubai Silicon Oasis apartment values up 6% annually and Dubai Sports City up 5.4%, while Burj Khalifa apartments were down 19% and Jumeirah Beach Residence was down 15.1%.
| Segment | Latest annual price change | Future supply | Buyer profile | Current risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apartments, ValuStrat | -4.2% | Very high | More investor-heavy | High |
| Apartments, Property Index | -3.3% | Very high | More cash-heavy | High |
| Villas, ValuStrat | 0.0% | Much lower | More end users | Lower |
| Villas, Property Index | +1.7% | Much lower | More mortgage use | Lower |
| Burj Khalifa apartments | -19.0% | Location-specific | Premium/investor mix | Already heavily corrected |
| Dubai Silicon Oasis apartments | +6.0% | Location-specific | More affordable | Still rising |
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Is Dubai building too many homes?
Dubai is building enough homes to put real pressure on prices, although the frightening headline supply numbers will almost certainly overstate what actually gets delivered on time.
Knight Frank is tracking roughly 350,000 homes scheduled for completion between 2026 and 2030. If every unit arrived as planned, Dubai would add close to 70,000 homes per year.
The city’s long-term average has been closer to 36,000 annual completions.
The near-term pipeline looks even more extreme. Around 145,000 homes had at one point been scheduled for completion in 2026.
Dubai rarely delivers its entire schedule. Knight Frank found only about 60% of expected housing supply was completed on time between 2021 and 2025. Roughly 39,700 homes were actually delivered last year.
Construction progress now suggests around 95,649 homes could realistically complete this year. That estimate already removes many projects that remain too early in construction to meet their original date.
Even after making that adjustment, 95,649 homes would be around 2.4 times last year’s completions.
Developers can soften the impact by pushing handovers into later periods, and Dubai has a long record of doing exactly that. But much of this stock is already being built. A delayed tower eventually hands over unless the project is cancelled altogether.
| Dubai housing supply measure | Approximate figure | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Homes tracked through 2030 | 350,000 | Huge committed pipeline |
| Implied annual rate | ~70,000 | Nearly twice the long-term average |
| Long-term annual completions | ~36,000 | Useful absorption baseline |
| Last year’s completions | ~39,700 | Recent actual delivery |
| Initial 2026 schedule | ~145,000 | Unrealistically high ceiling |
| Current 2026 delivery estimate | ~95,649 | Still a major jump |
| Historical on-time delivery rate | ~60% | Delays will reduce yearly peaks |
Can Dubai’s population growth absorb all those new homes?
Dubai’s population boom can absorb a surprising amount of housing, but it needs to stay unusually strong as completions accelerate.
Official figures from Digital Dubai show the emirate reaching 4.58 million residents at the end of last year. Dubai added around 332,000 people in 12 months, equal to 7.5% population growth.
That is a huge demand engine.
Knight Frank estimates that population growth of roughly 5% a year would be needed to keep the housing market broadly balanced against the pipeline it currently tracks. Dubai recently exceeded that rate comfortably.
This is why simple comparisons such as “350,000 homes are coming, therefore prices must crash” miss an essential part of the market. Dubai can absorb tens of thousands of extra homes when hundreds of thousands of residents arrive every year.
The risk appears if those two curves cross.
Housing construction has already been committed. Future migration has not. Towers that are halfway built can continue toward completion even if hiring slows, fewer entrepreneurs relocate or regional conditions reduce international inflows.
A move from 7.5% population growth toward 3% would radically change the supply calculation if annual completions were simultaneously moving toward 80,000 or 100,000.
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Are falling Dubai rents warning that home prices will fall further and investors will leave?
Yes. Dubai’s softer rents are one of the strongest current arguments for further price declines, although rental yields remain high enough to keep investors interested at the right purchase price.
CBRE found average Dubai residential rents falling 6.2% quarter on quarter in Q2 and 2.6% from a year earlier.
That is a sharp change from the previous phase of the cycle.
During 2025, Knight Frank was still reporting one-bedroom rent increases of around 13% in Jumeirah Village Circle and 10% in Business Bay. Investors buying at increasingly high prices could point to rising rents and argue that the income from the property was catching up.
That argument is harder to make today.
Imagine an apartment earning AED80,000 a year. At AED1 million, its gross yield is 8%. If the apartment rises to AED1.4 million while rent remains AED80,000, the gross yield falls to 5.7%.
When investors expect another year of strong appreciation, some will accept the lower yield. Once prices themselves start falling, rental income becomes much more important.
Engel & Völkers calculated average gross residential rental yields of about 6.6% during the first half of the year, which remains competitive with many major international cities. Dubai also has no annual tax on residential property value comparable with the recurring property taxes charged in several Western markets, while the dirham’s US-dollar peg remains attractive to certain international investors.
Investors are unlikely to disappear. They are more likely to demand lower entry prices when rents weaken, particularly in districts where new landlords are receiving similar apartments at the same time.
| Rental indicator | Previous direction | Latest direction | What changes for buyers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai average rents | Strong growth | -2.6% YoY | Less income support for high prices |
| Quarterly rents | Elevated | -6.2% QoQ | Cooling happened quickly |
| JVC 1BR rents | +13% during 2025 | Supply rising | Landlords face more competition |
| Business Bay 1BR rents | +10% during 2025 | Large apartment pipeline | Yield assumptions become harder to defend |
Are buyers disappearing from Dubai’s property market?
No. Dubai still has plenty of buyers; they are simply less willing to accept any price a seller asks.
The first half of the year still produced almost 79,200 residential sales according to Cavendish Maxwell. That would be considered an enormous market almost anywhere else.
The slowdown becomes clearer when we compare it with Dubai’s own exceptional previous year. First-half transaction volume fell almost 14%, while sales value dropped 15.7%.
Then activity began recovering.
Cavendish Maxwell counted about 12,315 residential sales in June after a much weaker May. ValuStrat subsequently recorded 3,546 ready-home transactions in July, up 11.4% from June and marking the second consecutive monthly increase in completed-home sales.
Mira International’s broader July dataset counted 14,263 transactions worth AED35.4 billion, with total volume increasing another 1.1% from June.
Sellers therefore still have liquidity available, although achieving a sale increasingly means accepting current market pricing.
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Is Dubai’s off-plan boom hiding weakness in completed homes?
Yes, to a degree. Dubai’s enormous off-plan market makes headline sales volumes look stronger than the resale market many owners actually experience.
ValuStrat says off-plan registrations represented 73% of all residential sales in July. Cavendish Maxwell found a very similar 74% share during the first five months of the year.
So roughly three out of every four Dubai residential purchases currently involve a property that is still being developed.
Developers have several tools that ordinary homeowners do not. They can stretch payments across construction, ask for a relatively small amount upfront, offer post-handover instalments or absorb certain fees. Those incentives can preserve an official selling price without requiring the buyer to fund the entire purchase immediately.
Someone reselling a completed apartment has fewer options. The buyer compares that home with dozens of developer offers and can see immediately whether the resale price makes sense.
The gap will become more important as properties sold during the launch boom reach completion. At handover, an off-plan contract becomes a physical apartment competing for tenants and buyers.
Could Dubai off-plan buyers be forced to sell?
Yes, some Dubai off-plan buyers will probably become motivated sellers as projects reach expensive payment stages, but the pressure should be concentrated rather than citywide.
The vulnerable buyer is someone who reserved a unit with a modest initial payment, expected to resell the contract at a premium and now faces further instalments while comparable properties are available at lower prices.
Once the resale premium disappears, the investor has four realistic choices: inject more cash, hold through completion, rent the property after handover or accept a lower sale price.
Knight Frank says motivated owners and investors are already contributing to mainstream price declines of roughly 5% to 20% in some locations. Many early buyers can still sell at a profit because the previous rally was so large, which reduces the urgency to hold out for the absolute highest price.
Cash ownership also limits the damage. Mira International found 74% of June residential purchases were made without mortgage finance, while another market analysis put cash at around 70% of resale transactions.
The pressure we expect is more local: several similar units in the same project reaching handover, investors needing cash at the same time and resale listings suddenly competing with fresh developer inventory nearby.
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Do high mortgage rates matter much for Dubai home prices?
Mortgage rates matter for Dubai home prices, especially for families buying villas, but they have less power over this market than they would in heavily financed Western cities.
Cash remains dominant.
Mira International counted 9,915 cash residential purchases in June compared with 3,490 mortgage purchases, giving cash a 74% share.
The split becomes more interesting by property type. Apartments were almost 80% cash-funded, while roughly two-thirds of villa purchases used mortgages.
So changes in borrowing costs hit different parts of Dubai differently.
A family financing an AED4 million villa reacts quickly to a change in monthly repayments. An overseas investor paying cash for an AED1 million apartment cares much more about rent, expected resale value and currency exposure.
Mortgage activity has also shown it can recover when conditions improve. Mira counted a 57.7% month-on-month increase in mortgage transactions in June, with financing rising to AED7.3 billion.
Lower rates would help Dubai housing, particularly completed homes and expensive villas, but mortgages remain too small a share of the overall market to dictate the entire cycle.
Is Dubai’s luxury property market falling too?
Dubai luxury home prices have softened in places, but wealthy buyers are still spending at record levels.
Knight Frank recorded 296 sales above US$10 million during the first half of the year. Those transactions were worth US$5.1 billion, up 14% from the same period last year.
The number of deals also increased 16% year on year and 49% compared with the first half two years earlier.
At the very top, 26 homes sold for more than US$25 million during Q2 alone. The most expensive first-half deal was a six-bedroom apartment at Aman Residences in Jumeirah Second for AED422 million, or US$114.9 million.
Dubai Hills Estate recorded 51 US$10 million-plus transactions during the half, Palm Jumeirah had 50 and Palm Jebel Ali had 40.
Prices are no longer immune. Knight Frank has reported some easing in prime values, while the pace of deals slowed between the first and second quarters.
Even so, the data gives us no reason to claim global wealth is leaving Dubai. Rich buyers are still committing billions of dollars to the city while mainstream apartments correct.
| Dubai luxury measure | Latest result | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US$10M+ sales in H1 | 296 homes | +16% YoY |
| Value of US$10M+ sales | US$5.1B | +14% YoY |
| H1 deals vs two years earlier | 296 homes | +49% |
| US$25M+ transactions in Q2 | 26 | Record level |
| Dubai Hills US$10M+ sales | 51 | Largest H1 concentration |
| Palm Jumeirah US$10M+ sales | 50 | Very strong |
| Most expensive H1 home | AED422M | Aman Residences |
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Which Dubai neighborhoods could fall the most?
Apartment-heavy Dubai neighborhoods with lots of similar new supply are the places where we would expect the biggest further price declines.
Jumeirah Village Circle shows why this question is more complicated than simply finding the district with the most construction.
JVC accounted for 14.4% of all ready-home transactions in ValuStrat’s July data, making it Dubai’s largest secondary-market location that month. Strong liquidity is valuable because owners know buyers are actively looking there.
At the same time, JVC remains one of Dubai’s biggest apartment-development zones. New buildings keep giving tenants and buyers alternatives. That caps how far an ordinary one-bedroom unit can move away from competing stock.
Business Bay has a similar tension. It benefits from a central location, major employment areas and strong recognition among international buyers, while 5.3% of Dubai’s July ready transactions occurred there. Yet the district also has a large pipeline and many investor-owned apartments.
Dubai South is different again. Development around Al Maktoum International Airport creates a serious long-term demand story, but the district has far more land available for future construction. Scarcity will take longer to emerge.
The weakest proposition today is a generic unit priced as though it were scarce when buyers can find ten close substitutes nearby.
Could Dubai home prices fall another 15% from here?
Some Dubai homes could absolutely fall another 15%, but another citywide 15% decline from current prices would require a much weaker demand environment than we have today.
Earlier bearish forecasts looked dramatic when prices were still rising. They look less extreme now because parts of the adjustment have already happened.
Property Index’s headline measure has fallen about 6.4% between February and July. Knight Frank says mainstream values have already dropped around 5% to 20% in some areas. ValuStrat’s apartment index is also firmly negative year on year.
So a Burj Khalifa apartment that has already fallen heavily and a villa community that remains roughly flat should not share the same forecast.
Our base case from current levels is a further low-single-digit decline across Dubai as a whole.
Double-digit downside remains quite plausible for specific apartment projects where handovers are heavy, rents weaken and owners compete with developers offering better payment terms.
A broader 10% to 15% fall becomes much easier to imagine if population growth slows sharply at the same time as completions accelerate.
| Scenario from current prices | What would probably need to happen | Likely direction |
|---|---|---|
| Strong absorption | Population stays very strong and projects slip | Flat to small decline |
| Our base case | More supply arrives while demand stays healthy | Low-single-digit citywide decline |
| Weak apartment districts | Heavy handovers and softer rents | Another 10%+ locally is plausible |
| Broader bear case | Migration slows while supply jumps | 10%+ citywide downside becomes plausible |
| Severe crash | Forced selling and demand shock arrive together | Current evidence does not support it |
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What could stop Dubai home prices from falling?
Dubai home prices could find a floor fairly soon if ready-home demand keeps improving, rents stabilise and actual housing deliveries come in below the most aggressive schedules.
We already have one encouraging piece of evidence: buyers returned to completed homes in both June and July.
Rental stabilisation would be the next important step. Investors do not need rents to start climbing at double-digit rates again. They need confidence that another large drop in achievable income is unlikely.
Population growth would also have to remain strong. Dubai recently grew comfortably faster than the roughly 5% pace Knight Frank estimates could be needed to balance its projected housing pipeline.
Developers can help by reducing launches or stretching construction schedules. A slower flow of new competing projects would give current stock more time to clear.
Several quarters of buyers absorbing inventory faster than developers deliver it would be enough to stabilise prices.
What would make Dubai’s housing correction much worse?
Dubai’s housing correction would become much more serious if population growth slowed at the same time that apartment completions surged and rents kept falling.
Suppose annual population growth dropped toward 3% while developers actually delivered something close to 90,000 homes. More apartments would compete for a much smaller pool of incremental households.
Landlords receiving keys would cut rents to secure tenants. Investors facing final payments could list their properties. Existing owners would compete with those investors, while developers continued marketing newly launched units with attractive payment plans.
A second problem would emerge if buyer liquidity weakened at the same time. Dubai currently has enough cash purchasers to absorb discounted properties. A major economic, geopolitical or wealth-flow shock could reduce that cushion.
We would want to see several consecutive quarters of actual completions running well ahead of housing demand before calling this a serious oversupply downturn.
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Are Dubai home prices likely to fall further?
Yes. Dubai home prices are likely to fall a little further from current levels, with much bigger declines still possible in oversupplied apartment projects.
The evidence has moved far enough that calling for an immediate return to broad price growth looks too optimistic. Current price indices are negative year on year, apartments are already correcting more heavily than villas, rents have softened and a much larger number of homes is approaching completion.
Yet the data also puts a limit on how bearish we should be.
As seen above, Dubai added roughly 332,000 residents in a year, while short-term property flipping has fallen dramatically compared with the 2008 cycle. Completed-home buyers have recently returned as prices adjusted, cash still funds most residential purchases, and wealthy buyers continue spending billions of dollars at the top of the market.
We therefore expect another low-single-digit decline in average Dubai residential values before the market finds a firmer floor.
That citywide figure will hide much more violent movements underneath it.
An interchangeable apartment in a district receiving thousands of new units can easily lose another 10% or more. A well-located villa in a mature community may barely move. Some exceptional luxury homes can keep setting records while both happen.
Dubai is entering a much less forgiving part of the cycle. During the boom, buying in the right city was often enough. These days, buyers also need to choose the right building, the right community and the right price.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis investigates whether Dubai home prices are likely to fall further by separating the market into the forces that can actually change the answer: current price direction, transaction liquidity, rents, incoming supply, population absorption, buyer financing, off-plan versus completed-home activity, property type and location.
We prioritised the freshest complete evidence available, starting with registered transactions, current valuation and price indices, actual housing completions, recent rental movements and population data. Announced supply, asking prices and headline transaction totals were not treated as decisive on their own when more direct measures were available.
We also cross-checked datasets built in different ways. ValuStrat’s valuation-based residential index and Property Index’s mix-adjusted measure based on Dubai Land Department transactions do not measure the market identically, so agreement between them is particularly useful when judging whether the direction of prices has genuinely changed.
Supply was assessed against absorption rather than treated as automatically bearish. We compared the large development pipeline with historical completion rates, current construction progress and Dubai’s recent population growth because announced homes only become a serious pricing problem when actual deliveries begin to outrun household formation and investor demand.
We treated apartments, villas, completed homes, off-plan properties and ultra-prime homes separately where the evidence justified it. Citywide averages can hide major differences in future supply, buyer profile, financing and scarcity, so the final view is not based on the assumption that every Dubai property will follow the same path.
The base case is our synthesis of those indicators rather than a forecast copied from any single research house. We stress-tested it against stronger and weaker combinations of population growth, completions, rents and buyer liquidity, then separated the likely citywide direction from the larger moves that can occur at building and community level.
Key sources used for this analysis include ValuStrat’s July 2026 Dubai VPI, Property Index’s July 2026 mix-adjusted Dubai price index, Knight Frank’s H1 2026 luxury-market analysis, Knight Frank’s Dubai Residential Market Review, Cavendish Maxwell’s H1 2026 residential market report, CBRE’s UAE Real Estate Market Review Q2 2026, Mira International’s June 2026 residential review, Engel & Völkers’ 2026 Dubai market research, Dubai Land Department market information, and the Central Bank of the UAE’s mortgage regulations.
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Ines Benaddi 🇲🇦🇫🇷
Real Estate Agent, Dubai Real Estate
