Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the United Arab Emirates Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Dubai's property market is included in our pack
Dubai's property market heads into 2026 with prices still elevated but the pace of growth clearly slowing from the double-digit surges of recent years.
What you will find here is a complete breakdown of current housing prices in Dubai, recent trends, and forecasts for the short and long term, which we constantly update to reflect the latest market data.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Dubai.
Insights
- Villas in Dubai have outperformed apartments by roughly 2 percentage points annually since 2023, yet apartments still account for about 74% of all residential transactions in the emirate.
- Dubai recorded over 197,000 property transactions worth AED 624 billion between January and November 2025, already surpassing previous full-year records before December even began.
- Around 120,000 new residential units are scheduled for delivery in Dubai during 2026, which is more than triple the 35,000 units completed across 2025.
- Properties within walking distance of Dubai Metro stations typically rent 10% to 15% faster than similar units farther from transit, making connectivity a measurable price driver.
- Gross rental yields in Dubai average around 6.7% to 7% for apartments, roughly double what investors earn in mature cities like London or New York.
- The upcoming Dubai Metro Blue Line is expected to boost property values by up to 25% near its 14 new stations once it opens in 2029, according to the Roads and Transport Authority.
- Affordable apartment rents in neighborhoods like International City and Dubai Silicon Oasis rose by more than 20% during 2025, outpacing growth in prime areas.
- Price appreciation in Dubai is forecast to moderate to 5% to 8% in 2026, down sharply from the 12% to 22% annual growth seen during 2024 and 2025.
Fact-checked and reviewed by our local expert
Ines Benaddi 🇲🇦🇫🇷
Real Estate Agent, Dubai Real Estate
What are the current property price trends in Dubai as of 2026?
Dubai enters 2026 with residential prices still near their cyclical highs, but the growth rate is clearly cooling as the market transitions from a momentum-driven rally to a more selective phase. Villas continue to outperform apartments, which is significant because apartments carry about 74% of the market's weight according to Dubai Statistics Center data. Institutional analysts from Knight Frank, CBRE, and Property Monitor all confirm that while prices remain elevated, buyers are becoming pickier and paying closer attention to location quality, developer track record, and long-term livability.
What is the average house price in Dubai as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated average property price in Dubai is approximately AED 1,850 per square foot, which works out to around AED 20,000 per square meter (roughly USD 5,450 or EUR 5,000 per sqm).
When you convert that into what buyers typically pay per transaction, medians sit at roughly AED 1.55 million (USD 420,000 / EUR 390,000) for apartments, AED 3 million (USD 815,000 / EUR 755,000) for townhouses, and AED 7.5 million (USD 2 million / EUR 1.9 million) for villas.
The realistic price range that covers about 80% of Dubai property purchases runs from around AED 600,000 (USD 165,000 / EUR 150,000) for entry-level studios in affordable communities up to AED 5 million (USD 1.36 million / EUR 1.26 million) for mid-to-upper segment family homes, with prime and luxury properties sitting well above that band.
How much have property prices increased in Dubai over the past 12 months?
The estimated average property price increase in Dubai over the past 12 months is around 9% to 10% year-on-year as of the first half of 2026, which represents a noticeable slowdown from the 12% to 18% gains recorded earlier in the cycle.
Across different property types, the range of price growth varied between roughly 10% and 15%, with villas typically gaining around 13% to 15% and apartments closer to 10% to 12% depending on location and building quality.
The single most significant factor behind this price movement in Dubai was sustained population growth combined with continued international migration, which kept demand high even as borrowing costs remained elevated and new supply started entering the market.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Dubai as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated top three Dubai neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices are Dubai Hills Estate, DIFC (Dubai International Financial Centre), and Palm Jumeirah, all of which combine constrained supply with strong lifestyle or investment appeal.
The approximate annual price growth for these top neighborhoods ranges from 12% to 18%, with DIFC's branded residences and Palm Jumeirah's waterfront villas often sitting at the higher end due to scarcity and global buyer demand.
The main demand driver behind these neighborhoods is the combination of limited new supply, high-quality master planning, and their appeal to wealthy international buyers who view Dubai prime real estate as both a lifestyle choice and a hedge against instability elsewhere.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Dubai.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in the UAE. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Dubai as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated ranking of property types by value appreciation rate in Dubai puts villas at the top (around 13% to 15% annually), followed by townhouses (11% to 13%), and then apartments (10% to 12%), with branded residences in prime locations often outperforming within the apartment category.
The approximate annual appreciation percentage for the top-performing property type, which is villas, sits around 14% year-on-year based on the latest available data from late 2025.
The main reason villas outperform other property types in Dubai is that demand for space, privacy, and family-friendly living surged during and after the pandemic, while villa supply remains structurally limited compared to the thousands of new apartments entering the market each year.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Dubai?
- How much should you pay for a villa in Dubai?
- How much should you pay for a townhouse in Dubai?
What is driving property prices up or down in Dubai as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated top three factors currently driving property prices in Dubai are sustained population growth from international migration, strong non-oil economic activity keeping employment high, and the upcoming wave of new supply that may temper price gains in certain segments.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on Dubai property prices is population growth, with Dubai's resident base expanding significantly each year as professionals, entrepreneurs, and families relocate from Europe, Asia, and the broader Middle East region.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Dubai here.
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What is the property price forecast for Dubai in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Dubai in 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated expected percentage increase in Dubai residential property prices is around 3% to 5% for the full year, which represents a clear moderation from the double-digit growth of recent years.
The realistic range of forecasts from different analysts runs from roughly flat or slightly negative (around -5% in a downside scenario) up to around 8% in an optimistic scenario, with most institutional views clustering in the 3% to 6% band.
The main assumption underlying most price increase forecasts for Dubai is that population growth and end-user demand will remain strong enough to absorb the large wave of new supply scheduled for delivery during the year.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Dubai.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Dubai in 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated top Dubai neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth are Dubai Hills Estate, Dubai Creek Harbour, MBR City (Mohammed Bin Rashid City), and areas benefiting from the upcoming Metro Blue Line such as Dubai Silicon Oasis.
The projected price growth percentage for these top neighborhoods ranges from approximately 6% to 12% for the year, with master-planned communities like Dubai Hills Estate likely at the higher end due to strong family demand and limited remaining inventory.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these Dubai neighborhoods is the combination of infrastructure investment (especially metro connectivity), maturing community amenities, and sustained demand from end-users rather than speculative buyers.
One emerging neighborhood in Dubai that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Dubailand Residence Complex (DLRC), which is gaining attention as the Metro Blue Line transforms previously car-dependent areas into accessible investment destinations.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Dubai.
What property types will appreciate the most in Dubai in 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated property type expected to appreciate the most in Dubai is villas and townhouses, particularly in established master-planned communities where supply is constrained and family demand remains deep.
The projected appreciation percentage for villas, the top-performing property type in Dubai, is around 6% to 10% for 2026, with prime villa locations in areas like Emirates Hills and Jumeirah potentially hitting the higher end of that range.
The main demand trend driving appreciation for villas in Dubai is the continued preference for space, outdoor living, and family-oriented communities among high-net-worth buyers and relocating professionals with children.
The property type expected to underperform in Dubai during 2026 is mid-market apartments in areas with heavy new supply, where the large number of handovers may create more buyer choice and limit price growth or even cause modest corrections.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in the UAE versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Dubai in 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated impact of current interest rate trends on Dubai property prices is moderately supportive, as stable or slightly declining EIBOR rates help maintain buyer affordability without triggering a rush of speculative demand.
The current benchmark interest rate in Dubai, EIBOR (Emirates Interbank Offered Rate), sits around 4.5% to 5%, and mortgage rates typically add 1% to 2% on top of that, with expectations that rates may ease modestly during 2026 if global rate cuts continue.
A 1% change in interest rates typically affects Dubai property affordability by shifting monthly mortgage payments by roughly 10% to 12%, which can either bring new buyers into the market or push price-sensitive purchasers toward smaller units or less expensive neighborhoods.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in The United Arab Emirates.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Dubai in 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated top three biggest risks for Dubai property prices are the wave of 120,000+ new units scheduled for delivery during the year, affordability constraints as prices have outpaced income growth for many residents, and potential global economic shocks that could reduce international capital inflows.
The single risk with the highest probability of materializing in Dubai is the supply wave, as the sheer volume of new completions concentrated in apartment-heavy segments could create localized oversupply and pressure prices downward in certain communities.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Dubai.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Dubai in 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated overall assessment is that it can be a good time to buy a rental property in Dubai if you focus on yield-generating locations with strong tenant demand and you are prepared to hold through potential price volatility rather than expecting quick flips.
The strongest argument in favor of buying a rental property now in Dubai is that gross yields remain attractive at around 6% to 8% for well-located apartments (and up to 9% to 10% in affordable communities), which significantly outperforms most mature global cities.
The strongest argument for waiting before buying a rental property in Dubai is that the large supply wave during 2026 may create better buying opportunities later in the year, especially in segments where new handovers exceed immediate tenant demand.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Dubai.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Dubai.
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An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Dubai?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Dubai as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated cumulative property price growth expected over the next 5 years in Dubai is around 20% to 25% in total, which translates to roughly 4% average annual appreciation in a base-case scenario.
The range of 5-year forecasts from optimistic to conservative scenarios runs from about 10% total (if supply waves cause multi-year digestion) up to around 35% total (if strong migration and rate cuts accelerate demand beyond current expectations).
The projected average annual appreciation rate over the next 5 years in Dubai is approximately 4% to 5% per year, which reflects a maturing market that still grows but no longer delivers the dramatic boom-year gains of the early 2020s.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on for their 5-year Dubai property price predictions is that the UAE economy will continue diversifying successfully, population growth will remain robust, and global wealth flows toward Dubai as a safe haven will persist.
Which areas in Dubai will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The estimated top three areas in Dubai expected to have the best price growth over the next 5 years are Dubai Hills Estate (strong family demand and maturing infrastructure), Dubai Creek Harbour (waterfront master plan reaching critical mass), and MBR City/District One (premium low-density positioning with scarcity value).
The projected 5-year cumulative price growth for these top-performing Dubai areas is around 30% to 45%, assuming infrastructure improvements and community maturation proceed as planned under the Dubai 2040 vision.
This outlook is largely consistent with our shorter 2026 forecast, but the 5-year view places more emphasis on infrastructure-driven value creation such as the Metro Blue Line and Etihad Rail connectivity, which will take several years to fully materialize.
The currently undervalued area in Dubai with the best potential for outperformance over 5 years is Dubai South/Expo City direction, which benefits from its designation as a future urban center in the 2040 master plan and proximity to the expanding Al Maktoum International Airport.
What property type will give the best return in Dubai over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated property type expected to give the best total return over 5 years in Dubai is well-located apartments (especially studios and 1-bedrooms in high-tenant-demand areas), which combine solid yields with meaningful capital appreciation potential.
The projected 5-year total return (appreciation plus rental income) for this top-performing property type in Dubai is around 50% to 65% cumulative, combining roughly 20% to 25% price growth with approximately 30% to 40% in net rental income over the period.
The main structural trend favoring apartments over the next 5 years in Dubai is the continued influx of young professionals and small households who prioritize location and amenities over space, keeping tenant demand strong in well-connected communities.
The property type offering the best balance of return and lower risk over 5 years in Dubai is townhouses in established master-planned communities, which deliver moderate yields (around 5% to 6%) with more stable capital values than either high-volatility prime villas or supply-sensitive mid-market apartments.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Dubai over 5 years?
The estimated top three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Dubai property prices over the next 5 years are the Dubai Metro Blue Line (30 km with 14 stations connecting the east to the city center), Etihad Rail passenger services (linking Dubai to other emirates), and the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan's designated growth corridors.
The typical price premium for properties near completed infrastructure projects in Dubai is around 15% to 25% compared to similar units in less connected locations, based on historical patterns observed after previous Metro line openings.
The specific Dubai neighborhoods that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments include Dubai Creek Harbour, Dubai Silicon Oasis, International City, Mirdif, and Dubai South, all of which sit along the Blue Line route or near Etihad Rail connectivity points.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Dubai in 5 years?
The estimated projected population growth rate for Dubai is around 3% to 4% annually, and this sustained expansion is expected to keep housing demand structurally supported over the next 5 years, particularly for mid-market and family-oriented properties.
The demographic shift that will have the strongest influence on Dubai property demand is the continued influx of high-earning professionals aged 25 to 45, many arriving with families, who prioritize quality schools, community amenities, and commute times when choosing where to live.
International migration patterns are expected to remain strongly positive for Dubai property values over 5 years, with continued inflows from Europe, South Asia, and increasingly from China and Africa as Dubai cements its role as a global business and lifestyle hub.
The property types and areas in Dubai that will benefit most from these demographic trends are family-friendly townhouses and villas in master-planned communities like Dubai Hills Estate and Arabian Ranches, as well as apartments in transit-connected urban cores like Business Bay and Dubai Marina.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in the UAE compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Dubai?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Dubai as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the estimated cumulative property price growth expected over the next 10 years in Dubai is around 45% to 55% in total, which translates to roughly 3.8% to 4.5% average annual appreciation in a base-case scenario.
The range of 10-year forecasts from optimistic to conservative scenarios runs from about 20% to 30% total (if multiple supply cycles cause extended consolidation periods) up to around 70% total (if Dubai's global-city positioning strengthens and economic diversification exceeds expectations).
The projected average annual appreciation rate over the next 10 years in Dubai is approximately 4% per year, reflecting a city that continues growing but experiences the normal cyclical pauses that characterize mature real estate markets.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Dubai is how successfully the emirate manages future supply waves relative to demand growth, as timing mismatches have historically created significant volatility in this market.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Dubai?
The estimated top three long-term economic factors that will shape Dubai property prices over the next decade are the success of UAE economic diversification away from oil, continued competitiveness in attracting global talent and capital, and the evolution of interest rates and mortgage availability.
The single long-term economic factor that will have the most positive impact on Dubai property values is population growth driven by successful economic diversification, as a growing base of high-earning residents creates sustained demand for quality housing.
The single long-term economic factor that poses the greatest structural risk to Dubai property values is the potential for supply discipline to break down, with developers overbuilding during boom periods and creating multi-year correction phases when demand fails to keep pace.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Dubai.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Dubai, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Dubai Land Department (DLD) | Dubai's official land registry and regulator, making its index as official as it gets. | We used it to anchor the official direction of prices and to validate claims about transaction volumes. |
| Dubai Pulse | Government open-data portal publishing DLD datasets with update timestamps. | We used it to confirm market activity and ground our analysis in real transaction data. |
| Dubai Statistics Center (DSC) | Dubai's official statistics authority publishing verified demographic and price indices. | We used it to quantify villa vs apartment performance and their relative market weights. |
| Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) | The UAE's central bank publishing the benchmark EIBOR rate used in mortgages. | We used it to explain how borrowing costs affect affordability and buyer demand. |
| International Monetary Fund (IMF) | Top-tier international institution with standardized country economic surveillance. | We used it to frame the macro backdrop supporting housing demand in the UAE. |
| World Bank | Flagship international source for macro conditions and country risk assessment. | We used it to cross-check economic trajectory and anchor downside-risk thinking. |
| UAE Government Portal (Dubai 2040) | Official platform summarizing Dubai's long-term urban planning framework. | We used it to identify structural demand drivers and future growth corridors. |
| REIDIN | Long-running regional data provider with index-style methodology and reporting. | We used it for hard, comparable AED/sqft pricing by neighborhood and property type. |
| Knight Frank | Major global consultancy with consistent market research and forecasting methods. | We used it to triangulate citywide pricing and anchor our 2026 forecast projections. |
| CBRE | Top global real estate research house with recurring UAE market reporting. | We used it to cross-check market direction, transaction volumes, and pricing momentum. |
| Property Monitor | Widely cited Dubai analytics provider with transparent index methodology. | We used it for median transaction prices and to explain cycle maturation signals. |
| Reuters (Fitch analysis) | High-standard wire service explicitly reporting Fitch Ratings' market views. | We used it to represent the credible bearish case and supply-wave correction risk. |
| DLD Rental Index | Official calculator and benchmark used in rent discussions and dispute contexts. | We used it to ground buy-to-let analysis in how rents are actually regulated. |
| Global Property Guide | Established cross-country dataset publishing location-by-location yield snapshots. | We used it to give quantitative, defensible yield ranges for buy-to-let decisions. |
| The National | Leading UAE news outlet with extensive property market reporting and analyst access. | We used it for timely market updates and expert commentary on 2026 outlook. |
| Gulf News | Major UAE publication with consistent property sector coverage and data reporting. | We used it for Metro Blue Line impact analysis and neighborhood-level trends. |
| Khaleej Times | Established UAE newspaper with regular real estate market analysis and yield data. | We used it for affordable segment trends and rental yield comparisons by community. |
| Engel & Volkers Dubai | International real estate consultancy with detailed local market research. | We used it for cycle analysis and to understand price moderation versus correction dynamics. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: