How is the property market forecast in Cairo?

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Egypt Property Pack

Yes, the analysis of Cairo's property market is included in our pack

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SANDS OF WEALTH

A team specialized in real estate investing in MENA countries (Morocco, UAE, Oman, etc.)

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Cairo. If you'd like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

What is the current average price per square meter for residential properties in Cairo, and how has it changed over the past five years?

As of September 2025, residential property prices in Cairo have reached historic highs with significant variations across districts.

Apartment prices currently average EGP 23,800 per square meter in New Cairo's Fifth Settlement, EGP 27,600 per sqm in Zamalek's luxury areas, and EGP 19,250 per sqm in 6th of October City. These figures represent the premium end of Cairo's residential market.

Over the past five years, nominal property prices have surged dramatically by 100-400% depending on location. The most extreme gains occurred in 2024, with year-on-year increases of 175-180% recorded in New Cairo and 6th of October City. This unprecedented growth was driven by currency devaluation, construction cost hikes, and robust urban demand.

The compound annual growth rate averaged approximately 11% between 2020 and 2025, though this masks much higher volatility in specific years, particularly during Egypt's currency crisis.

It's something we develop in our Egypt property pack.

How do apartment prices compare to villa prices in Cairo's most popular districts like New Cairo, Zamalek, and 6th of October City?

Villa prices consistently command substantial premiums over apartments across Cairo's prime districts, though the gaps vary significantly by location.

In New Cairo, apartments average EGP 23,800 per sqm while villas range from EGP 21,450 to over EGP 130,000 per sqm depending on luxury level and amenities. The premium villa developments in Fifth Settlement can exceed EGP 130,000 per sqm for top-quality properties.

Zamalek presents a unique case where luxury apartments reach EGP 27,600 per sqm, representing some of Cairo's highest apartment prices, though villa inventory is extremely limited in this central district.

6th of October City shows more moderate pricing with apartments at EGP 19,250 per sqm and villas ranging from EGP 23,050 to EGP 24,400+ per sqm, making it relatively more accessible for both property types.

What is the current annual rental yield in Cairo, and how does it compare to other regional capitals like Dubai or Riyadh?

Cairo offers attractive rental yields that outperform many regional markets, making it compelling for income-focused investors.

The average gross rental yield in Cairo currently stands at 6.77% as of Q2 2025, representing an increase from 5.52% recorded in Q1 2024. This performance places Cairo among the highest-yielding markets in the MENA region.

Within Cairo, rental yields vary significantly by district. New Cairo delivers 7.06% yields for two-bedroom apartments, while Mohandessin achieves exceptional 13.33% returns. 6th of October yields 5.33%, Sheikh Zayed 5.5%, and Heliopolis-Masr El Gedida 4.93%.

Compared to regional capitals, Cairo substantially outperforms Dubai's typical 4-6% yields and matches or exceeds Riyadh's 5-7% range. This yield advantage stems from Cairo's relatively lower property prices combined with strong rental demand from both locals and expatriates.

The high yields also reflect the inflationary environment, with rental rates increasing 88-90% year-on-year in prime districts like New Cairo and 6th of October during Q1 2025.

How many new residential units are expected to be delivered in Cairo over the next three years, and how does this compare to demand?

Cairo's residential supply pipeline remains robust with substantial new developments planned across multiple districts.

For 2025, over 32,000 additional residential units are scheduled for completion in Greater Cairo, following the delivery of 24,000 units in 2024 and 23,000 units in 2023. Approximately 7,500 new units were delivered in Q1 2025 alone.

The majority of upcoming completions are concentrated in East Greater Cairo, particularly the New Administrative Capital's R7 district and New Cairo developments. Most new supply consists of apartments within mixed-use developments rather than standalone villas.

Over the three-year period 2025-2027, industry projections suggest approximately 85,000-95,000 new units will be delivered, representing continued expansion of Cairo's housing stock from its current base of around 301,100 units.

Demand remains exceptionally strong, driven by Egypt's annual population growth of 2.5 million people and approximately one million marriages yearly. The fundamental supply-demand imbalance continues favoring sellers, particularly in prime locations, though luxury segments may face oversupply while affordable housing remains insufficient.

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What percentage of property transactions in Cairo are made in cash versus mortgage financing today?

Cairo's property market remains heavily cash-dominated, though mortgage financing is gradually expanding with government support.

Egypt's mortgage market represents less than 1% of the country's GDP, indicating extremely limited mortgage penetration compared to global standards. Most property transactions in Cairo continue to be cash-based, particularly in the luxury and investment segments.

The number of mortgage finance companies operating in Egypt has increased significantly from only 2 companies in 2005 to 27 companies recently, showing growing institutional capacity. However, mortgage adoption remains constrained by high interest rates, stringent qualification requirements, and buyer preferences for cash transactions.

Recent government initiatives include the Central Bank of Egypt's mortgage financing program launched in March 2021, along with the introduction of capital mortgage companies and real estate SPVs. These developments aim to boost mortgage accessibility, though impact remains limited.

Foreign buyers typically rely entirely on cash transactions, as most Egyptian banks require residency visas and local address proof for mortgage eligibility. Some banks like Qatar National Bank (QNB) offer mortgages to foreigners, but options remain restricted.

How has mortgage interest rate policy in Egypt influenced property affordability in the last two years?

Egypt's mortgage interest rates have significantly impacted affordability, though recent cuts provide some relief for qualified buyers.

As of May 2025, the Central Bank of Egypt implemented a 100 basis point reduction in key interest rates, bringing the overnight deposit rate to 24%, lending rate to 25%, and main operation rate to 24.5%. The discount rate was similarly cut to 24.5%.

These rates represent substantial decreases from previous highs but remain extremely elevated by international standards. The CBE had previously raised rates aggressively to combat inflation that peaked above 38% in 2023.

High interest rates severely constrained mortgage affordability over the past two years, effectively pricing out most middle-income buyers from financing options. Combined with rapid property price appreciation, this created a significant affordability crisis for financed purchases.

The recent rate cuts signal improving conditions, though rates remain prohibitively high for most buyers. Property developers have responded by offering extended payment plans up to 10 years and flexible financing arrangements to maintain purchase accessibility despite challenging borrowing conditions.

It's something we develop in our Egypt property pack.

What is the current vacancy rate in new developments, and how has this trended over the past three years?

Vacancy rates in Cairo's property market show mixed trends depending on the sector and location, with residential developments generally maintaining low vacancy levels.

In the retail sector, vacancy rates have improved significantly, dropping from 11% in Q3 2022 to 10% in Q3 2023, and further declining to 7.2% in Q1 2025. This improvement reflects strong tenant demand and better footfall performance across Cairo's shopping centers.

Office developments show more variation, with Grade A office vacancies declining to 8.6% in Q1 2025, down from 10.9% in the previous quarter. However, the overall city-wide office vacancy rate averaged around 9.5% in Q4 2024, representing relatively healthy occupancy levels.

For residential developments, specific vacancy data is limited, but strong demand indicators suggest low vacancy rates in most prime locations. The trend toward buyers choosing rental over purchase in high-end neighborhoods has actually strengthened occupancy rates as landlords prefer leasing over selling.

Over the past three years, the trend has generally favored decreasing vacancy rates across sectors, supported by Egypt's growing population, urbanization, and increasing employment in Cairo's expanded economic zones including the New Administrative Capital.

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How many foreign buyers are entering the Cairo property market annually, and which nationalities represent the largest share?

Foreign investment in Cairo's property market has increased substantially, though specific nationality breakdowns remain limited in public data.

The Egyptian government removed the last restrictions on foreign ownership of land and property in 2024, significantly boosting international buyer interest. This policy change allows foreigners to purchase property without previous limitations, attracting investors seeking portfolio diversification.

Egyptian expatriates represent a major portion of foreign buyers, leveraging favorable currency exchange rates to purchase properties in their home market. Many wealthy Egyptians living abroad have gone on property-buying sprees, capitalizing on the pound's devaluation.

Government reports indicate approximately 9 million foreign high and middle-class residents in Egypt, creating substantial potential demand. Additionally, hundreds of thousands of Sudanese refugees have sought housing since April 2023, further increasing demand pressures.

While developers and government authorities actively promote Egyptian properties abroad, particularly in Gulf countries, concrete data on foreign acquisition numbers and specific nationalities remains largely unavailable. However, Gulf investors, European buyers, and diaspora Egyptians appear to represent the largest foreign buyer segments.

What is the projected population growth in Greater Cairo by 2030, and how is this expected to affect housing demand?

Greater Cairo's population growth trajectory points to massive housing demand increases through 2030, creating sustained market support.

Egypt's national population is projected to reach 127 million by 2030, with Greater Cairo expected to house a significant portion. The Cairo metropolitan area population currently stands at approximately 22.6 million as of 2024, growing at nearly 2% annually.

Annual population growth includes 2.5 million new births nationally and approximately one million marriages yearly, generating substantial new household formation. Greater Cairo, as Egypt's economic and cultural center, attracts a disproportionate share of this growth.

The New Administrative Capital alone plans to accommodate up to 7 million residents with 1.1 million residential units across 21 districts. This massive urban development represents one of the largest planned city projects globally and will significantly expand Greater Cairo's capacity.

Housing demand implications are profound, with Egypt planning to construct 3.7 million houses by 2030 compared to the historical average of 45,000 houses annually during the 1990s. The government has allocated EGP 1.3 trillion ($42 billion) for 14 new towns plus an additional EGP 700 billion ($22.5 billion) for urban development.

This population growth ensures sustained housing demand pressure, particularly benefiting established districts like New Cairo, 6th of October, and emerging areas in the New Administrative Capital.

How much have construction costs increased in Cairo since 2020, and how has that impacted property developers' pricing strategies?

Construction costs in Cairo have experienced dramatic increases since 2020, fundamentally reshaping developer pricing strategies and project economics.

The Egyptian pound's devaluation in early 2024 alone triggered a 20% increase in benchmark construction rates, as imported building materials, energy, and finishing products became significantly more expensive. Egypt's fourth devaluation in two years saw the pound lose almost two-thirds of its value.

Steel, cement, and finishing material prices have increased substantially, though specific percentage increases vary by material type. Rising inflation exceeding 30% during peak periods further elevated input costs including wages, transportation, and raw materials throughout the construction process.

Developers have responded with several strategic adjustments. First, they've raised sale prices to preserve margins, with property values in sought-after locations reaching historic highs exceeding EGP 200,000 per sqm in top-tier districts. Second, they've offered extended payment plans up to 10 years to maintain purchase accessibility despite higher prices.

Pricing strategies now incorporate cost escalation factors, with developers increasingly pricing projects based on dollar-denominated costs rather than local currency to hedge against further devaluation. Many have also shifted toward mixed-use developments and premium segments where higher margins can absorb cost increases more effectively.

It's something we develop in our Egypt property pack.

What is the expected average annual price growth for Cairo properties over the next five years, according to analysts and major developers?

Industry experts forecast continued robust price appreciation for Cairo properties through 2030, though growth rates may moderate from current explosive levels.

For 2025, leading developers expect property price increases of 15-30%. Ahmed Sabbour, Chairman of Al Ahly Sabbour Developments, specifically forecasts increases of 25-30%, while Tarek Shoukry from the Real Estate Development Chamber expects a more conservative 15% rise, citing construction cost pressures from exchange rate changes.

Mohamed El Aasar, Chairperson of Margins Developments, predicts price hikes of 30%, emphasizing challenges in project delivery amid economic pressures. Mohamed Amin, CEO of Cratos Real Estate, anticipates 15-25% increases driven by robust demand in areas like New Cairo and the North Coast.

The Egyptian residential real estate market is projected to grow from USD 21.95 billion in 2025 to USD 36.92 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.96%. This substantial growth reflects strong underlying fundamentals including population growth, urbanization, and ongoing infrastructure investment.

Over the five-year horizon 2025-2030, industry consensus suggests annual price growth will average 8-12% annually, with higher growth in premium locations and mixed-use developments. Factors supporting continued appreciation include persistent housing shortages, infrastructure improvements, and Egypt's strategic position attracting regional investment.

How does the current affordability ratio (average property price compared to average household income) in Cairo compare to global benchmarks?

Cairo's affordability ratio reveals significant challenges for local buyers, with property prices far exceeding typical household income multiples compared to global standards.

Average household income in Egypt remains extremely low at approximately $4,800 annually, while property prices in prime Cairo locations have reached levels comparable to much wealthier markets. A typical 100-sqm apartment in New Cairo now costs approximately EGP 2.38 million ($47,600), representing nearly 10 times average annual household income.

This affordability ratio significantly exceeds global benchmarks where healthy markets typically see property prices at 3-5 times annual household income. Even in expensive cities like London or New York, ratios rarely exceed 8-12 times income, while Cairo's ratio approaches or exceeds these levels despite much lower absolute incomes.

The situation becomes more stark when considering that social housing unit prices have risen 15-20% annually over the past decade while average incomes increased only 1% per year. This dramatic divergence has created an affordability crisis for middle-income Egyptian families.

Properties in the New Administrative Capital have reached levels completely out of reach for mid-level employees, forcing most government workers to commute using the Light Rail Transit system from more affordable areas. High-end residential properties in Cairo are increasingly priced and sometimes paid in US dollars, further disconnecting from local purchasing power.

The affordability crisis explains why many prospective buyers are choosing to rent in upscale neighborhoods rather than purchase, and why cash transactions dominate the market as mortgage financing becomes prohibitively expensive for most residents.

Conclusion

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.

Sources

1. Global Property Guide - Egypt Residential Property Market Analysis 2025
2. Economy Middle East - Egypt's real estate market booms in H1 2025
3. Daily News Egypt - Cairo Real Estate Market Q1 2025 Performance
4. Sands of Wealth - Egypt Property Price Forecasts
5. Mordor Intelligence - Egypt Residential Real Estate Market
6. Global Property Guide - Rental Yields in Egypt 2025
7. Hurghadians Property - Egypt Housing Market Future Outlook
8. Timber Exchange - Property Prices in Egypt Surge Analysis